本周方管漲幅較大 下周或窄幅波動(dòng)為主

本周(8.6-8.10)，國(guó)內(nèi)方管價(jià)格漲幅依然較大，監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至8月10日，國(guó)內(nèi)十大重點(diǎn)城市4寸方管均價(jià)為4528 元(噸價(jià)，下同)，比上周末方管價(jià)格上漲44元，其中中心城市唐山漲50元、天津漲40元、北京漲80元、西安漲50元、武漢漲70元、上海漲70元、濟(jì) 南漲50元、廣州漲30元，大部分中心城市報(bào)價(jià)繼續(xù)上漲。
This week (8.6-8.10), the domestic square tube price is still a big increase, monitoring data show that as of August 10, the average price of four-inch square tube in ten major cities in China is 4528 yuan (tonnage, the same below), 44 yuan higher than last weekend square tube price, including the central city of Tangshan 50 yuan, Tianjin 40 yuan, Beijing 80 yuan, Xi'an 50 yuan, Wuhan 50 yuan. Prices in most of the central cities continued to rise.

原料方面
Raw materials

本周唐山鋼坯價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲，目前唐山鋼坯出廠報(bào)價(jià)3910元，比上周同期漲60元。周初，伴隨市場(chǎng)傳出兩則消息：一是臨汾市長(zhǎng)時(shí)隔一年多再次被環(huán) 保部約談；而是南方某大型鋼廠因環(huán)保被大面積停爐；兩則消息使得期盤一度沖擊前高。另外前期被限產(chǎn)的軋鋼廠如期恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)，而由于鋼坯在前期便一直處于供求 雙弱，如今需求先快速反彈，自然引得鋼坯廠惜售漲價(jià)，因此本周鋼坯表現(xiàn)較為強(qiáng)勢(shì)。但前期價(jià)格拉得太高，短期若沒(méi)有利好繼續(xù)跟進(jìn)，短期或有小幅調(diào)整可能。
Tangshan billet prices continued to rise this week, Tangshan billet factory price 3910 yuan, 60 yuan higher than the same period last week. At the beginning of the week, two pieces of news came out: the mayor of Linfen was interviewed again by the Ministry of Environmental Protection more than a year later, but a large-scale steel mill in the South was shut down because of environmental protection; two pieces of news made the futures price hit a high before. In addition, the earlier restricted rolling mills resumed production on schedule, and because billets in the previous period has been in weak supply and demand, and now demand rebounded quickly, naturally led to billet mills to sell price rises, so this week the performance of billets is stronger. But the price is too high in the early stage. If there is no positive follow-up in the short term, there may be a slight adjustment in the short run.

本周國(guó)內(nèi)帶鋼價(jià)格持續(xù)高位震蕩。截至8月10日，唐山355系列帶鋼價(jià)格4150元，報(bào)價(jià)比上周五漲50元。本周，期貨與鋼坯的連續(xù)拉漲繼續(xù)提振 現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)信心，帶鋼價(jià)格也跟著水漲船高。帶鋼價(jià)格的連續(xù)拉漲，使得下游商家操作偏謹(jǐn)慎，僅按需拿貨，整一周的帶鋼現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)成交一般，終端需求不足，而鋼廠 挺價(jià)意愿十分強(qiáng)烈，就導(dǎo)致了很多管廠和帶鋼形成倒掛。而唐山地區(qū)受限產(chǎn)影響庫(kù)存普遍不高，成本端也是居高不下，廠家出貨價(jià)格也是堅(jiān)挺向上。所以即使需求端 區(qū)域弱勢(shì)的情況，在各種利好支撐下價(jià)格下行阻力明顯。預(yù)計(jì)下周國(guó)內(nèi)帶鋼市場(chǎng)價(jià)格或?qū)⑷愿呶徽�理�?BR>This week, domestic strip prices continued to be high and volatile. As of August 10th, the price of Tangshan's 355 series strip was 4150 yuan, and the quoted price was 50 yuan higher than that of last Friday. This week, the continuous rally in futures and billets continued to boost spot market confidence, strip prices have also risen with the water. Strip prices continue to rise, making downstream merchants operate cautiously, only take goods on demand, the whole week of the spot market for strip steel transactions in general, the terminal demand is insufficient, and steel mills are very willing to bid, resulting in a lot of pipe mills and strip forming inverted hanging. In Tangshan area, the inventory affected by restricted production is generally not high, and the cost side is also high, and the manufacturer's delivery price is also strong and upward. Therefore, even if the demand side is weak, the downward drag on prices is obvious under the support of various favorable conditions. It is expected that domestic steel market prices will remain high next week.

管廠方面
Pipe factory

本周，鋼市上漲行情仍在繼續(xù)。但與上周相比，市場(chǎng)整體成交情況有所降溫。周初，隨著政治局會(huì)議確定擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需政策以及貨幣寬松政策的落實(shí)，鋼市表現(xiàn) 出明顯的提振效果，價(jià)格一漲再漲。受其原料帶動(dòng)，國(guó)內(nèi)方管報(bào)價(jià)繼續(xù)追漲。尤其是周二，河北地區(qū)管廠出廠價(jià)格盤中再次出現(xiàn)二次追漲的局面，但由于價(jià)格拉漲過(guò) 快，管廠反應(yīng)高價(jià)位成交受阻，市場(chǎng)恐高情緒繼續(xù)增濃。周后期，受原料企穩(wěn)影響，津冀地區(qū)管廠出廠價(jià)格暫時(shí)以穩(wěn)為主，成交一般，廠內(nèi)成品材庫(kù)存小幅增高。成 本方面，以唐山地區(qū)為例，目前主流管廠4寸方管出廠報(bào)價(jià)為4350-4400元，與主導(dǎo)鋼廠355mm系列帶鋼出廠價(jià)相差200元左右，成本端繼續(xù)抬升， 除去帶鋼廠的優(yōu)惠政策、管廠出貨時(shí)議價(jià)空間以及其他各地原料運(yùn)輸成本等各方面因素，目前管廠倒掛情況再現(xiàn)。
This week, the steel market continues to rise. But compared with last week, the overall turnover of the market has cooled. At the beginning of the week, with the Politburo meeting to determine the expansion of domestic demand policy and the implementation of monetary easing policy, the steel market showed a significant boost effect, prices rose again and again. Driven by its raw materials, domestic quotas continue to rise. Especially on Tuesday, Hebei pipe factory ex-factory prices in the second round of the market chase up the situation, but because the price rose too fast, pipe factory reaction to high price transaction blocked, the market fear of heightened sentiment continues to grow.  Affected by the stabilization of raw materials in late Zhou Dynasty, the ex-factory prices of pipe factories in Tianjin and Hebei Provinces were mainly stable for the time being, and the transaction was general. The inventory of finished products in the factory increased slightly. In terms of cost, taking Tangshan area as an example, the current 4-inch square pipe ex-factory quotation of the mainstream pipe mill is 4350-4400 yuan, which is about 200 yuan different from the 355mm series strip ex-factory price of the leading steel mill. The cost side continues to rise, except for the preferential policies of the strip mill, the bargaining space at the time of delivery of the pipe mill and other factors such as raw material transportation costs in various parts of the country. At present, pipe factory upside down situation reappears.

監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至8月10日，唐山友發(fā)產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國(guó)標(biāo)方管現(xiàn)金出廠價(jià)格為4370元，比上周同期漲70元；唐山京華產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國(guó)標(biāo)方管現(xiàn)金出廠價(jià)格為4350元，比上周同期漲50元。
Monitoring data show that as of August 10, Tangshan Youfa 4 inch (3.75) new GB cash ex-factory price is 4370 yuan, up 70 yuan from the same period last week; Tangshan Jinghua 4 inch (3.75) new GB cash ex-factory price is 4350 yuan, up 50 yuan from the same period last week.

市場(chǎng)方面
Market aspect

本周，大部分地區(qū)方管報(bào)價(jià)有明顯跟漲，但貿(mào)易商普遍反應(yīng)終端需求依然偏弱，高價(jià)位成交困難，不少地區(qū)出現(xiàn)倒掛現(xiàn)象，因此操作起來(lái)更加謹(jǐn)慎，市場(chǎng)觀 望情緒較濃。另外受成交不暢影響，社會(huì)庫(kù)存開(kāi)始小幅增加。本周(8.10)國(guó)內(nèi)方管庫(kù)存：據(jù)不完全統(tǒng)計(jì)22個(gè)城市庫(kù)存27.71萬(wàn)噸，較上周同期增 0.11萬(wàn)噸，增幅0.39%。
This week, most of the region's square tube quotations have been markedly rising, but traders generally respond to terminal demand is still weak, high-level trading difficulties, many regions appear hanging upside down phenomenon, so the operation is more cautious, market wait-and-see sentiment is strong. In addition, due to the sluggish turnover, social inventories began to increase slightly. Domestic Square Tube Inventory this week (8.10): According to incomplete statistics, 22 cities inventory 277,100 tons, compared with the same period last week, an increase of 0.11 million tons, an increase of 0.39%.

總的來(lái)看，近期陸續(xù)出臺(tái)的秋冬季大氣污染攻堅(jiān)方案以及多區(qū)域限電通知將對(duì)鋼市繼續(xù)形成支撐，但價(jià)格拉漲過(guò)快帶來(lái)的恐高情緒也不在斷蔓延。而另一方 面，廠商倒掛情況明顯，總體挺價(jià)意愿較強(qiáng)，短期大幅下跌的概率不大，而大幅拉漲以后市場(chǎng)或有小幅調(diào)整訴求，因此短期方管價(jià)格或窄幅波動(dòng)為主。
Overall, the recent air pollution battle plan in autumn and winter and multi-regional power limit notification will continue to form a support for the steel market, but prices pulled too fast brought about by fear of heights are also spreading. On the other hand, the upside-down situation of manufacturers is obvious, the overall willingness to offer is strong, the probability of a short-term sharp decline is not large, and after a sharp rise in the market may have a small adjustment demand, so short-term square tube prices or narrow fluctuations mainly.

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