方管股持續(xù)活躍 多因素支撐趨勢行情

昨日鋼鐵板塊逆市上漲，位居行業(yè)板塊漲幅排行前列，板塊內(nèi)柳鋼股份、華菱鋼鐵漲幅超5%，三鋼閩光、南鋼股份、韶鋼松山等漲幅也較為顯著。鋼鐵板塊近期表現(xiàn)活躍，領(lǐng)漲周期品種。分析指出，在多種因素刺激下，鋼價近期保持上漲趨勢，為鋼鐵股行情提供支撐。從基本面來看，低庫存是本輪行情最核心的支撐和驅(qū)動。
Yesterday, the steel plate rose against the market, ranking in the forefront of the industry plate gains, plate Liugang shares, Hualing Iron and Steel increased by more than 5%, Minguang, Nangang shares, Shaogang Songshan and other gains are more significant. Iron and steel plate has been active in recent years, leading a variety of cycles. The analysis points out that under the stimulation of a variety of factors, steel prices have maintained a rising trend in the near future, providing support for the steel market. From a fundamental point of view, low inventory is the core support and driving force of the current market.

庫存低位徘徊
Low inventory

從鋼鐵行業(yè)基本面最新動態(tài)看，截至8月10日，全國鋼材價格繼續(xù)上漲，鐵礦石港口庫存、鋼材社會庫存維持下降態(tài)勢。
From the latest developments in the steel industry fundamentals, as of August 10, the national steel prices continued to rise, iron ore port inventory, steel social inventory maintained a downward trend.

具體看，據(jù)券商研報顯示，截至8月10日，上海地區(qū)20mm螺紋鋼、4.75mm熱卷、1.0mm冷軋板、20mm中厚板價格分別為4300元/ 噸，4260元/噸，4770元/噸，4420元/噸，較上上周分別上漲80元/噸、0元/噸、20元/噸、50元/噸；港口鐵礦石庫存為15286.9 萬噸，比上上周下降123.5萬噸。鋼材社會庫存下降0.6萬噸，至999.7萬噸。
Specifically, according to the brokerage research report, as of August 10, Shanghai 20 mm screw steel, 4.75 mm hot coil, 1.0 mm cold rolled plate, 20 mm plate prices were 4300 yuan / ton, 4260 yuan / ton, 4770 yuan / ton, 4420 yuan / ton, respectively, up 80 yuan / ton, 0 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton compared with last week, port iron ore inventory was 15286. .9 million tons, down 1 million 235 thousand tons from the previous week. Steel stocks dropped by 6 thousand tons to 9 million 997 thousand tons.

平安證券分析師陳建文表示，鋼鐵行業(yè)供給端受環(huán)保限產(chǎn)影響繼續(xù)受限，難以釋放；需求端，鋼材社會庫存繼續(xù)保持下降趨勢，隨著后期基建補(bǔ)短板等政策逐步落實，需求有望進(jìn)一步 提振。因此，從基本面來看，行業(yè)供需格局有望在政策邊際放松、環(huán)保限產(chǎn)趨嚴(yán)的背景下，三季度重新趨于緊平衡狀態(tài)。鋼材價格有望繼續(xù)保持高位波動運(yùn)行，全年 行業(yè)利潤有望超過去年再創(chuàng)歷史新高。
Chen Jianwen, an analyst with Ping An Securities, said that the supply side of the steel industry was still limited by the impact of environmental restrictions on production, and it was difficult to release; on the demand side, the social stock of steel continued to decline, and with the implementation of policies such as capital construction and short plates, demand is expected to further boost.  Therefore, from the basic point of view, the supply and demand pattern of the industry is expected to be tightly balanced in the third quarter under the background of loosening policy margins and tightening environmental production restrictions. Steel prices are expected to remain high and volatile, and industry profits are expected to surpass last year's record high.

估值修復(fù)仍有空間
There is still room for valuation repair.

在近期市場震蕩期間，鋼鐵股總體保持向上趨勢，不少個股已經(jīng)創(chuàng)出階段新高，那么支撐板塊上漲的邏輯是否發(fā)生變化？后市該如何配置？
During the recent market turmoil, steel stocks have generally maintained an upward trend, many stocks have reached stage highs, then support the logic of plate rise has changed? How to configure future market?

中信建投表示，鋼鐵板塊仍將持續(xù)上漲。首先，從情緒面來看，目前市場遠(yuǎn)未形成一致強(qiáng)烈看多預(yù)期，這一點(diǎn)頗為健康。其次，從盤面來看，近期鋼價的漲勢也談不上特別順 暢。宏觀層面的外部沖突加劇，股市劇烈波動也對黑色交易的小環(huán)境有明顯影響。但這些影響并未破壞黑色小環(huán)境上漲的形態(tài)。再次，從現(xiàn)貨和原料端來看，近期現(xiàn) 貨跟漲或領(lǐng)漲以及鋼坯、廢鋼、焦炭原料上漲也有助鋼價繼續(xù)上漲。在基差已收窄至100以內(nèi)的背景下，現(xiàn)貨的上漲對于行情的支撐至關(guān)重要。最后，從基本面來 看，低庫存是本輪行情最核心的支撐和驅(qū)動。
CITIC said that the steel plate will continue to rise. First, from an emotional point of view, it is healthy that the market is far from forming a consensus of strong bullish expectations. Secondly, judging from the disk, the recent rise in steel prices is not particularly smooth. External conflicts at the macro level intensify, and the sharp fluctuations in the stock market also have a significant impact on the small environment of black trading. But these effects did not damage the black environment. Thirdly, from the spot and raw materials point of view, the recent spot rise or lead, as well as billet, scrap steel, coke raw materials rise also helped steel prices continue to rise. Under the background that the base has narrowed to less than 100, the rise in spot prices is crucial to the support of the market. Finally, from a basic point of view, low inventory is the core support and driving force of the current market.

招商證券表示，旺季需求來臨+環(huán)保限產(chǎn)進(jìn)一步趨嚴(yán)，繼續(xù)看好鋼鐵股估值修復(fù)。繼前兩周唐山、常州環(huán)保限產(chǎn)之后，上周江西萍鄉(xiāng)萍鋼安源鋼鐵因環(huán)保問題，7座高爐中的5 座陸續(xù)停產(chǎn)，環(huán)保限產(chǎn)在各地進(jìn)一步趨嚴(yán)并帶來供給持續(xù)壓制。同時，上周螺紋庫存環(huán)比降幅為近5周來最大，其快速消化，顯示下游需求轉(zhuǎn)好，亦或意味著下半年 旺季需求的逐步啟動。隨著社會庫存持續(xù)去化、環(huán)保限產(chǎn)帶來供給適度收縮，以及再提擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需等宏、微觀變化出現(xiàn)，行業(yè)迎來持續(xù)催化劑，繼續(xù)看好鋼鐵股估值修 復(fù)機(jī)會。
China Merchants Securities said that demand in the peak season is approaching + environmental restrictions further tightening, and continue to be bullish on steel stocks valuation repair. Following the environmental production restrictions in Tangshan and Changzhou two weeks ago, the production of Anyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. of Pingxiang Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. in Jiangxi Province was suspended in five of the seven blast furnaces due to environmental problems last week, resulting in further stringent environmental production restrictions in various places and sustained pressure on supply. At the same time, last week's decline in thread inventory was the largest in nearly five weeks, its rapid digestion, indicating better downstream demand, or means the second half of the peak season demand gradually started. With the continuous depletion of social inventories, moderate contraction of supply brought about by environmental restrictions, and the re-expansion of domestic demand and other macro and micro changes, the industry ushered in a sustained catalyst, continue to be bullish on the opportunity to repair the valuation of steel stocks.

三季度旺季重點(diǎn)看好長材及低估值板材。首先，盈利劣勢促使鋼廠鐵水流向“重板輕螺”，三季度長材供給壓力小。其次，長材需求季節(jié)性更強(qiáng)，淡旺季切換強(qiáng)度大。三季度是傳統(tǒng)的基建、房地產(chǎn)開工旺季，受此影響，長材價格及噸毛利走勢季節(jié)性明顯。最后，政策預(yù)期改善+基建穩(wěn)增長背景下，長材更受益。
In the three quarter, we should focus on long and undervalued plates. First of all, the disadvantage of profit makes steel molten steel flow to "heavy plate and light screw", and the supply pressure of long timber in the three quarter is small.  Secondly, the demand for long timber is stronger, and the intensity of switching is strong in the rush season. The third quarter is the traditional capital construction, real estate start-up season, affected by this, long timber prices and ton gross profit trend seasonally obvious. Finally, when the policy is expected to improve and the steady growth of infrastructure, long timber will benefit more.

方管