方管市場(chǎng)價(jià)格上漲的動(dòng)力與回落的壓力并存

方管期貨價(jià)格沖高回落，然后開(kāi)始低谷爬坡、緩慢恢復(fù)。方管期貨主力合約價(jià)格快速跌破4100元/噸之后又擊穿 4000元/噸關(guān)口。相對(duì)而言，螺紋鋼期貨價(jià)格較熱軋卷板期貨價(jià)格下跌的幅度要小一些，而其恢復(fù)的勢(shì)頭則比后者要強(qiáng)勁一些。目前，螺紋鋼主力合約價(jià)格已恢 復(fù)到4100元/噸以上，而熱軋卷板主力合約價(jià)格尚在4000元/噸左右徘徊，二者噸材價(jià)差已經(jīng)超過(guò)一百元。

The futures price of the square tube dropped sharply and then began to climb slowly and recover slowly. The main contract price of Fang Guan futures broke through 4100 yuan / ton and then broke through the 4000 yuan / ton mark. Relatively speaking, the price of rebar futures fell less than that of hot rolled coil futures, and its recovery momentum was stronger than that of the latter. At present, the main contract price of rebar has been restored to more than 4100 yuan per ton, while the main contract price of hot rolled coil still hovers around 4000 yuan per ton, the price difference between the two has exceeded 100 yuan per ton.

上周一，螺紋鋼期貨價(jià)格大幅沖高，主力合約最高價(jià)逼近4300元/噸，但受利空因素主導(dǎo)，價(jià)格下行壓力太大，上周二收盤(pán)價(jià)暴跌至4071元 /噸，較前一日收盤(pán)價(jià)下降213元/噸；上周三期價(jià)繼續(xù)走低，進(jìn)而觸底反彈，上周四和上周五期價(jià)緩慢回升。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至9月14日23時(shí)0分，螺紋鋼主 力1901合約的最新價(jià)為4155元/噸，較上一交易日結(jié)算價(jià)提高80元/噸，上漲1.96%，比前一周同期降低85元/噸，下降2.00%；最高價(jià)和最 低價(jià)分別為4156元/噸和4089元/噸，周環(huán)比分別降低88元/噸和95元/噸，分別下降2.07%和2.27%；當(dāng)日下午收盤(pán)價(jià)為4090元/噸， 周環(huán)比降低96元/噸，下降2.29%。螺紋鋼1810、1811、1812和1905合約的最新價(jià)分別為4520元/噸、4471元/噸、4221元 /噸和3850元/噸，較9月13日結(jié)算價(jià)分別上漲2.15%、1.57%、0.24%和0.65%。

On Monday, the price of rebar futures rose sharply, with the highest price of the main contract approaching 4,300 yuan / ton, but the downward pressure was too great due to bad news. On Tuesday, the closing price plunged to 4,071 yuan / ton, 213 yuan / ton lower than the previous day's closing price; on Wednesday, the price continued to fall, and then rebounded to the bottom, on Thursday and Friday. The price is rising slowly. The latest price of the main 1901 contract was 4155 yuan / ton, up 1.96% from the settlement price of the previous trading day, and down by 2.00% from the same period of the previous week. The highest and lowest prices were 4156 yuan / ton and 4089 yuan / ton respectively, and the weekly cycle ratio was 88 yuan / ton and 9 yuan / ton respectively. 5 yuan / ton, down 2.07% and 2.27% respectively; the closing price on the afternoon of the same day was 4090 yuan / ton, a decrease of 96 yuan / ton, down 2.29%. The latest prices of 1810, 1811, 1812 and 1905 contracts for rebar are 4520 yuan / ton, 4471 yuan / ton, 4221 yuan / ton and 3850 yuan / ton respectively, up 2.15%, 1.57%, 0.24% and 0.65% from the settlement price on September 13.

熱軋卷板期價(jià)走勢(shì)與螺紋鋼期價(jià)走勢(shì)大致相似：上周一價(jià)格沖高，主力合約最高價(jià)逼近4200元/噸，同樣由于價(jià)格下行壓力太大，上周二收盤(pán)價(jià)暴跌至3969元/噸，較前一日收盤(pán)價(jià)下降195元/噸；上周三期價(jià)繼續(xù)走低，進(jìn)而觸底反彈，上周四和上周五期價(jià)緩慢恢復(fù)、回升。

The trend of hot-rolled coil price is similar to that of screw steel: the price of the main contract reached 4200 yuan / ton on Monday, and the closing price fell sharply to 3969 yuan / ton on Tuesday, 195 yuan / ton lower than the previous day's closing price. The price of last Wednesday continued to fall, and then rebounded to the bottom. Last Thursday and Friday, prices slowly resumed and rebounded.

數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至9月14日23時(shí)0分：熱軋卷板主力1901合約最新價(jià)格為4035元/噸，較上一交易日結(jié)算價(jià)提高37元/噸，上漲 0.93%，但比前一周同期降低113元/噸，下降2.72%；最高價(jià)和最低價(jià)分別為4038元/噸和3985元/噸，周環(huán)比分別降低116元/噸和 125元/噸，分別下降2.79%和3.04%；當(dāng)日下午收盤(pán)價(jià)為3992元/噸，較前一周同期降低122元/噸，下降2.97%。熱軋卷板1810和 1905合約的最新價(jià)分別為4276元/噸和3800元/噸，較上一交易日結(jié)算價(jià)分別上漲0.78%和0.13%。

The latest price of the main 1901 contract for hot rolled coil sheet was 4035 yuan / ton at 230:00 on September 14, which was 37 yuan / ton higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.93%, but 113 yuan / ton lower than the same period of the previous week, down 2.72%; the highest price and the lowest price were 4038 yuan / ton and 3985 yuan / ton respectively, and the weekly cycle ratio was 116 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day The closing price on the afternoon of the same day was 3992 yuan / ton, down 122 yuan / ton, down 2.97%. The latest prices for the contracts of 1810 and 1905 were 4276 yuan / ton and 3800 yuan / ton, respectively, up 0.78% and 0.13% from the previous day's settlement price.

宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)方面，8月14日國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局發(fā)布的信息顯示，8月份全國(guó)規(guī)模以上工業(yè)增加值同比實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)6.1%，比7月份加快0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。其中， 黑色金屬冶煉和壓延加工業(yè)增長(zhǎng)5.9%，通用設(shè)備制造業(yè)增長(zhǎng)5.9%，汽車(chē)制造業(yè)增長(zhǎng)1.9%，電氣機(jī)械和器材制造業(yè)增長(zhǎng)3.3%，鐵路、船舶、航空航天 和其他運(yùn)輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)下降0.5%。

Macroeconomic aspects, August 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released information shows that the national industrial value added above the size of 6.1% year-on-year growth in August, 0.1 percentage points faster than July. Among them, the ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry grew by 5.9%, the general equipment manufacturing industry by 5.9%, the automobile manufacturing industry by 1.9%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry by 3.3%, and the railway, shipping, aerospace and other transport equipment manufacturing industry by 0.5%.

1月~8月份，全國(guó)固定資產(chǎn)投資（不含農(nóng)戶(hù)）同比增長(zhǎng)5.3%，增速比1月~7月份回落0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)�；�礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資同比增長(zhǎng)4.2%，增速比 1月~7月份回落1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；全國(guó)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)投資同比增長(zhǎng)10.1%，增速比1月~7月份回落0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；房屋竣工面積下降11.6%；辦公樓銷(xiāo) 售面積下降6.3%；房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)企業(yè)到位資金國(guó)內(nèi)貸款下降6.6%，利用外資下降68.3%。

From January to August, the investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points from January to July. Infrastructure investment grew by 4.2% year-on-year, the growth rate dropped by 1.5 percentage points from January to July, the national real estate development investment increased by 10.1%, the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points from January to July, the completed housing area decreased by 11.6%, office building sales area decreased by 6.3%, and the domestic loans of real estate development enterprises in place decreased by 6.6%. The utilization of foreign capital dropped by 68.3%.

當(dāng)前，國(guó)內(nèi)外政治經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)、國(guó)際貿(mào)易動(dòng)態(tài)直接影響著市場(chǎng)心態(tài)和業(yè)內(nèi)對(duì)后市的預(yù)期，成為影響方管期貨價(jià)格走勢(shì)的重要因素。目前市場(chǎng)心態(tài)不夠穩(wěn)定，方管市場(chǎng)價(jià)格上漲的動(dòng)力與回落的壓力并存，筆者預(yù)計(jì)，近期方管期價(jià)將繼續(xù)波動(dòng)調(diào)整。

At present, the political and economic situation at home and abroad, international trade dynamics have a direct impact on the market mentality and the industry's expectations of the future market, become an important factor affecting the price trend of square tube futures. At present, the market mentality is not stable enough, the momentum of rising prices in the square tube Market and the pressure of falling coexist, the author anticipates that the square tube futures prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust in the near future.

方管