本周國內(nèi)焊管價(jià)格震蕩趨弱市場(chǎng)成交一般

本周(10.29-11.2)，國內(nèi)焊管價(jià)格震蕩趨弱，監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至11月2日，國內(nèi)十大重點(diǎn)城市4寸焊管均價(jià)為4625 元(噸價(jià)，下同)，比上周同期焊管價(jià)格下跌37元，各中心城市均有不同程度的下跌，其中唐山下調(diào)120元、天津下調(diào)40元、北京降50元、西安降20元、 武漢降20元、濟(jì)南降20元、廣州降60元、成都降40元，市場(chǎng)成交一般。
This week (10.29-11.2), domestic welded pipe price shocks weakened. Monitoring data show that, as of November 2, the average price of 4-inch welded pipe in ten key cities in China was 4625 yuan (ton price, the same below), 37 yuan lower than the same period last week. The prices of welded pipe in all central cities fell in varying degrees, including Tangshan down 120 yuan, Tianjin down 40 yuan, and Tianjin down 40 yuan. Beijing down 50 yuan, Xi'an down 20 yuan, Wuhan down 20 yuan, Jinan down 20 yuan, Guangzhou down 60 yuan, Chengdu down 40 yuan, the market turnover is general. 原料方面
Raw materials

本周唐山鋼坯價(jià)格先揚(yáng)后抑，目前唐山鋼坯出廠報(bào)價(jià)3900元，比上周同期降100元。本周唐山方面雖然再出環(huán)保文件，但介于現(xiàn)在上下兩難的形勢(shì)， 鋼坯也只能在區(qū)間無謂的小漲小跌。不過隨著期貨的破位下跌，最終鋼廠選擇了打破混沌，或許對(duì)后期走勢(shì)反而是好事。而由于本周本地兩大倉庫庫存不升反降，庫 存絕對(duì)值均遠(yuǎn)小于同期，故在價(jià)格進(jìn)行一波合理回調(diào)后，鋼坯交投或再回活躍，鋼廠或重回強(qiáng)勢(shì)。
The price of Tangshan billet rose first and then decreased this week. At present, the quotation of Tangshan billet is 3900 yuan, which is 100 yuan lower than the same period last week. This week, although Tangshan issued environmental protection documents again, the situation is in a dilemma between the top and bottom, and the billet can only rise and fall in a meaningless way in the region. However, with the breaking down of futures, steel mills finally chose to break the chaos, which may be a good thing for the future trend. As the two warehouses in this week's local stock does not rise and fall, the absolute value of inventory is far less than the same period, so after a reasonable price correction, billet trading or revitalization, steel mills or return to strong.

帶鋼方面，截至今日唐山熱軋帶鋼(2.5*355mm)唐山瑞豐4040，相比上周跌110元。本周唐山355mm及以上帶鋼市場(chǎng)承壓下行。北方 地區(qū)，現(xiàn)中寬帶價(jià)格以及熱卷價(jià)格均低于窄帶，部分下游選擇窄帶替代品進(jìn)行開平加工，據(jù)了解周邊已有縱剪設(shè)備上線，及時(shí)應(yīng)對(duì)采購危機(jī)，帶鋼受擠壓較大，成交 好轉(zhuǎn)困難。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，在本周后期，有部分鋼廠帶鋼軋線檢修，整體長流程帶鋼產(chǎn)能利用率有所下降，目前唐山市場(chǎng)帶鋼倉儲(chǔ)處于低位，據(jù)本周統(tǒng)計(jì)大約在32萬噸左 右，低庫存短時(shí)間對(duì)價(jià)格有所支撐，庫存降低的原因亦受軋線檢修影響，供給端減少。受套保盤虛擬庫存及黑色系期貨打壓影響，當(dāng)前熱卷價(jià)格萎靡不振，對(duì)寬帶市 場(chǎng)繼續(xù)形成壓制，本月鋼廠面臨采暖季按評(píng)級(jí)生產(chǎn)，對(duì)價(jià)格或?qū)⒂幸欢ㄖ�撐，綜合來看，預(yù)計(jì)下周唐山帶鋼或?qū)⒎�(wěn)中趨弱。
As for the steel strip, as of today, Tangshan hot rolled strip (2.5*355mm) Tangshan Ruifeng 4040, down 110 yuan compared to last week. This week Tangshan 355mm and above strip market is under pressure. In the northern region, the price of broadband and hot coil is lower than that of narrowband. Some downstream chooses narrowband substitutes for leveling. It is known that the peripheral longitudinal shear equipment has been put on line to deal with the procurement crisis in time. The strip steel is squeezed heavily and the turnover is difficult to improve. According to statistics, in the later part of this week, some steel mills'strip rolling line maintenance, the overall long process strip productivity utilization rate has decreased. At present, the Tangshan market strip storage is at a low level. According to this week's statistics, about 320,000 tons, low inventory short time to support the price, the reason for inventory reduction is also affected by the rolling line maintenance, supply and demand. The end is reduced. Influenced by hedging virtual inventory and black futures, the current hot coil price is depressed, which continues to suppress the broadband market. This month, steel mills are facing rating production in the heating season, which may support prices. In a word, Tangshan strip steel is expected to weaken steadily next week.

管廠方面
Pipe factory

從上個(gè)周末開始，隨著鋼坯和帶鋼價(jià)格走跌，津冀地區(qū)管廠出廠報(bào)價(jià)就開始小幅下調(diào)�？偟膩砜矗�本周期盤持續(xù)低開低走，而對(duì)于現(xiàn)貨來說顯得較為堅(jiān)挺， 尤其原料鋼坯由于資源相對(duì)緊張，挺價(jià)意愿較強(qiáng)，焊鍍管市場(chǎng)總體調(diào)整幅度也很有限。但臨近周末，期盤大幅跳水對(duì)現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)影響較為明顯，原料鋼坯、帶鋼價(jià)格應(yīng) 聲下跌，津冀地區(qū)管廠出現(xiàn)明顯下調(diào)。從筆者了解到的情況來看，盡管原料資源緊張，但由于下游需求有限，帶鋼資源尚能滿足廠內(nèi)需求，因?qū)�后市均不看好，各�?廠成品庫存較上周繼續(xù)下降。成本方面，以唐山地區(qū)為例，目前主流管廠4寸焊管出廠報(bào)價(jià)為4330-4520元，與主導(dǎo)鋼廠355mm系列帶鋼出廠價(jià)相差 200元之余，除去帶鋼廠的優(yōu)惠政策、管廠出貨時(shí)議價(jià)空間以及其他各地原料運(yùn)輸成本等各方面因素，目前管廠盈利空間尚可，倒掛情況也有明顯改善。
Since last weekend, with the price of billet and strip falling, the ex-factory quotation of pipe plants in Tianjin-Hebei region has been slightly lowered. Generally speaking, this cycle continues to open low and go low, but it is relatively strong for the spot. Especially raw steel billet due to relatively tight resources, strong willingness to bid, and the overall adjustment range of welded and plated pipe market is also limited. But near the weekend, the impact of the sharp dive in futures market on the spot market is more obvious. The prices of raw material billet and strip steel fell accordingly, and pipe factories in Tianjin and Hebei region decreased significantly. From what I know, although the raw material resources are scarce, but due to the limited downstream demand, the strip steel resources can still meet the needs of the plant, because the future market is not optimistic, the inventory of finished products in each pipe factory continues to decline compared with last week. In terms of cost, taking Tangshan area as an example, the current price quotation for 4-inch welded pipe of mainstream pipe factory is 4330-4520 yuan, which is 200 yuan different from that of 355mm series strip steel of leading steel factory. Besides the preferential policy of strip mill, bargaining space at the time of delivery of pipe factory and other factors such as transportation cost of raw materials, the current profit of pipe factory is short. There is still room for improvement.

監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至11月2日，唐山友發(fā)產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國標(biāo)焊管現(xiàn)金出廠價(jià)格為4290元，比上周同期下調(diào)100元；唐山 京華產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國標(biāo)焊管現(xiàn)金出廠價(jià)格為4320元，吉立(正大)產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國標(biāo)焊管現(xiàn)金出廠價(jià)格為4320元，比上周同期下調(diào)120 元。
Monitoring data show that as of November 2, Tangshan Youfa's cash ex-factory price for 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipes was 4290 yuan, down 100 yuan from the same period last week; Tangshan Jinghua's cash ex-factory price for 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipes was 4320 yuan; Jili's cash ex-factory price for 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipes was 4320 yuan, compared with last week's. The period is down by 120 yuan.

市場(chǎng)方面
Market aspect

本周，下游各市場(chǎng)焊管報(bào)價(jià)陸續(xù)下跌，幅度在20-60元不等。目前來看，隨著行情不斷下行，加之需求有限，各地市場(chǎng)成交一般，終端多按需采購。另 外由于對(duì)后市并不看好，市場(chǎng)觀望情緒較濃，各商家也開始有意識(shí)減少庫存，社會(huì)庫存下降明顯。各地焊鍍管報(bào)價(jià)陸續(xù)下跌以刺激成交，但總的來看效果也并不明 顯。進(jìn)入11月份，各地終端用管需求將不斷萎縮，市場(chǎng)對(duì)后市態(tài)度消極，后期或繼續(xù)下跌可能。
This week, the quotation of welded pipe in downstream markets dropped one by one, with a range of 20-60 yuan. At present, with the continuous downward trend of the market, coupled with limited demand, the local market turnover is general, terminal purchase on demand. In addition, as the future market is not optimistic, the market is more wait-and-see mood, businesses have begun to consciously reduce inventory, social inventory decline is obvious. The quotation of welded pipe is decreasing one after another to stimulate the transaction, but in general the effect is not obvious. In November, demand for terminal management will continue to shrink, the market attitude towards the future will be negative, and the latter may continue to decline.

總的來看，近期各地秋冬季環(huán)保限產(chǎn)政策陸續(xù)出臺(tái)，但市場(chǎng)似乎不為所動(dòng)，目前環(huán)保限產(chǎn)消息對(duì)鋼市的影響也越來越弱化。在此情況下，上下游廠商操作謹(jǐn) 慎，庫存正常偏下。進(jìn)入十一月份，終端需求將出現(xiàn)萎縮，市場(chǎng)心態(tài)或更趨于消極，加之期盤持續(xù)低位，下周國內(nèi)焊管價(jià)格或繼續(xù)下探。
Generally speaking, in the recent Autumn and winter, the policy of environmental production restriction has been introduced, but the market seems to be unchanged. At present, the impact of environmental production restriction news on the steel market is becoming weaker and weaker. In this case, the upstream and downstream manufacturers are cautious in operation, and the stock is normal. In November, the terminal demand will shrink, the market mentality will be more negative, and the futures market will continue to be low. Next week, domestic welded pipe prices will continue to decline.

方管