國內(nèi)2月份的方管價格走勢將如何呢？

+根據(jù)分析師馬力表示，春節(jié)后開市，不出意外的話，這種糾結(jié)觀望的心態(tài)會持續(xù)，價格也會相對穩(wěn)定。但如果節(jié)后鋼廠和社會整體鋼材庫 存量偏低或者經(jīng)濟政策有重大利好，扭轉(zhuǎn)市場觀望心態(tài)，投機需求突然增加的話，總體價格有可能會在2月份率先上漲，這種走勢如果出現(xiàn)的話，對于3月走勢是不 利的。但一旦節(jié)后庫存增長量、庫存水平大幅超過市場預期的話，那2月的價格就危險了。從目前的產(chǎn)銷形式，市場心態(tài)來看，春節(jié)后，尤其是2月份價格，以穩(wěn)為 主的可能性大。
+ According to analyst Ma Li, if the market opens after the Spring Festival, without any surprise, this entanglement and wait-and-see mentality will continue and prices will be relatively stable. However, if the stocks of steel mills and the society as a whole are low after the festival or the economic policy has a significant positive effect, reversing the market wait-and-see mentality and suddenly increasing speculative demand, the overall price may rise first in February. If this trend occurs, it will be disadvantageous to the March trend. But once the stock growth and stock level surpass the market expectation after the festival, the price in February will be dangerous. From the current form of production and marketing, market mentality, after the Spring Festival, especially in February, the price is likely to be stable. 據(jù)不完全統(tǒng)計，2018年11月份我國方管產(chǎn)量7762萬噸，同比增長10.8%，11月份全國粗鋼日均產(chǎn)量258.73萬噸，環(huán)比下降2.84%；1-11月份我國粗鋼產(chǎn)量85737萬噸，同比增長6.7%。隨著粗鋼產(chǎn)量的增加，勢必對后期的供需關(guān)系形成壓力。
According to incomplete statistics, China's crude steel output in November 2018 was 77.62 million tons, an increase of 10.8% compared with the same period last year. In November, China's crude steel output averaged 2.5873 million tons per day, a decrease of 2.84%. In January-November, China's crude steel output was 85.73 million tons, an increase of 6.7%. With the increase of crude steel production, it is bound to form pressure on the supply-demand relationship in the later period.

庫存方面，截至2019年1月下旬。監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全國29個重點城市鋼材社會庫存為792萬噸，比前一周增加36.57萬噸， 上升4.84%，上升速度放緩1.08個百分點。雖然庫存出現(xiàn)了連續(xù)上漲，但較去年同期還是下降了1.3萬噸，與2018年3月份庫存最高峰相比，下降了 973.3萬噸，下降幅度超過了55%。就目前而言，庫存并沒有出現(xiàn)大量累積的情況。
Inventory, as of late January 2019. Monitoring data show that the social stock of steel in 29 key cities in China is 792,000 tons, an increase of 365,700 tons over the previous week, an increase of 4.84%, and a slowdown of 1.08 percentage points. Despite the continuous increase in inventories, it has dropped 13,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Compared with the peak in March 2018, it has dropped 9.733 million tons, a decline of more than 55%. At present, there is no large accumulation of inventory.

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