2019年供需矛盾將是困擾鋼市向好運(yùn)行的大難題

近日，上海市鋼貿(mào)商會副會長、上海五波鋼結(jié)構(gòu)材料有限公司董事長任慶平接受《中國冶金報(bào)》記者采訪時(shí)表示：“2018年鋼市整體穩(wěn)中向好，主要得益于供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革、去產(chǎn)能、去杠桿、環(huán)保限產(chǎn)等政策的實(shí)施�！睂τ�2019年鋼市行情走勢，任慶平從供給和需求兩個(gè)層面進(jìn)行具體闡述。
Recently, Ren Qingping, vice president of Shanghai Steel Trade Chamber and chairman of Shanghai Wubo Steel Structural Materials Co., Ltd., told China Metallurgical Daily in an interview: "In 2018, the overall stability of the steel market is better, mainly due to the implementation of supply-side structural reform, capacity removal, deleveraging, environmental protection and production restriction policies." Regarding the trend of steel market in 2019, Ren Qingping elaborated on the two aspects of supply and demand. 從供給層面看，鋼廠產(chǎn)量或?qū)⒃黾�，供�?yīng)壓力將加大。2018年，鋼鐵行業(yè)去產(chǎn)能任務(wù)已基本完成，取締1.4億噸“地條鋼”。被淘汰的落后產(chǎn)能大 都是中小型鋼廠或民營鋼企，而國有大型鋼企環(huán)保裝備比較完善，很少被淘汰。2019年，通過淘汰落后產(chǎn)能來改善鋼市供給狀況不太可能。與此同時(shí)，部分鋼廠 新增了電爐鋼產(chǎn)能。按照目前的鋼材價(jià)格，鋼企盈利依然較好，生產(chǎn)積極性較高，不受環(huán)保限產(chǎn)影響的鋼企基本開足馬力，滿負(fù)荷生產(chǎn)。
From the supply level, the output of steel mills may increase, and the supply pressure will increase. In 2018, the iron and steel industry has basically completed the task of capacity removal, banning 140 million tons of "floor steel". Most of the obsolete production capacity are small and medium-sized steel mills or private steel enterprises, while the large state-owned steel enterprises have relatively perfect environmental protection equipment and are seldom obsolete. In 2019, it is impossible to improve the supply situation of steel market by eliminating backward capacity. At the same time, some steel mills have added the capacity of EAF steel. According to the current steel prices, steel enterprises are still profitable, production enthusiasm is high, not affected by environmental restrictions on production of steel enterprises basically full horsepower, full load production.

從需求層面看，2019年“鋼需”強(qiáng)度或?qū)�減弱。目前全社會杠桿率已經(jīng)處于高位，以“弱刺激”來減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)下行速度或許是2019年的主基調(diào)。近 日，中共中央政治局會議提出要進(jìn)一步“穩(wěn)投資”，但不要走過度依賴投資的老路，要在不斷擴(kuò)大投資總量、更好發(fā)揮投資對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長支撐作用的同時(shí)，更關(guān)注投資 質(zhì)量，擴(kuò)大有效投資，尋求以高質(zhì)量投資推動(dòng)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的路徑。據(jù)業(yè)內(nèi)機(jī)構(gòu)分析預(yù)測，2019年國內(nèi)鋼材需求量約為8億噸，同比下降2.4%。建筑、能源、 汽車等行業(yè)用鋼需求將出現(xiàn)小幅下降。
From the demand level, the strength of steel demand in 2019 may be weakened. At present, the leverage rate of the whole society has been at a high level. To slow down the economic downturn by "weak stimulus" may be the main tone of 2019. Recently, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed that we should further "stabilize investment", but we should not go through the old road of excessive dependence on investment. We should constantly expand the total investment and better play the role of investment in supporting economic growth, pay more attention to the quality of investment, expand effective investment, and seek ways to promote high-quality development with high-quality investment. According to the analysis and forecast of the industry, the domestic steel demand in 2019 is about 800 million tons, down 2.4% year on year. Demand for steel for construction, energy and automotive industries will decline slightly.

任慶平表示，供給和需求“一增一降”，預(yù)計(jì)2019年供需矛盾將是困擾鋼市向好運(yùn)行的大難題。
Ren Qingping said that the supply and demand "increase and decrease", and it is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand in 2019 will be a major problem that troubles the steel market to run well.

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