春節(jié)后用方管需求提供一定程度的支撐

春節(jié)假期結(jié)束以來，螺紋鋼期貨價(jià)格呈現(xiàn)沖高回落走勢。農(nóng)歷正月十五過后下游工地將會(huì)陸續(xù)開工，將為春節(jié)后用方管需求提供一定程度的支撐。另節(jié)前焊 管、方管庫存并未形成明顯的累積。國家大力托底基建的政策效果也正在逐漸顯現(xiàn)。有消息稱，2019年計(jì)劃新發(fā)專項(xiàng)債模將達(dá)到2.15萬億，較去年有較大 幅度增長。同時(shí)，1月地方債發(fā)行速度也在加快。這些都將為基建投資回升提供相當(dāng)支持。
Since the end of the Spring Festival holidays, the futures prices of threaded steel have shown a trend of rising and falling. After the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, downstream construction sites will start one after another, which will provide a certain degree of support for the demand for steel after the Spring Festival. In addition, the stocks of welded pipes and square pipes before joints did not accumulate significantly. The policy effect of national vigorous underpinning infrastructure construction is also gradually showing. It is reported that the planned new special debt model will reach 2.15 trillion yuan in 2019, a substantial increase over last year. At the same time, the issuance of local bonds accelerated in January. All these will provide considerable support for the recovery of infrastructure investment. 供給方面，當(dāng)前產(chǎn)量預(yù)期仍將保持高位，因此在需求真空期，庫存仍將呈現(xiàn)加速累計(jì)狀態(tài)。但是預(yù)計(jì)待到復(fù)工時(shí)需求將有較好表現(xiàn)。受國家政策和資金持續(xù) 發(fā)力的支持，基建投資增速將保持環(huán)比增長。近期鋼材受需求不明確和庫存快速累積的影響自高位回調(diào)，但是預(yù)計(jì)等到正月十五復(fù)工需求逐步釋放后，鋼鐵價(jià)格將重 回升勢。因此，短期不宜過分悲觀。
On the supply side, the current output is expected to remain high, so in the demand vacuum period, inventory will still show an accelerated cumulative state. However, it is expected that demand will perform better by the time of resumption. Supported by the sustained development of national policies and funds, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will maintain a ring-on-ring growth. Recently, steel prices have been pulled back from a high level due to uncertain demand and rapid accumulation of inventory, but it is expected that steel prices will rebound after the resumption of demand on January 15. Therefore, the short-term should not be overly pessimistic.

價(jià)格方面：截至發(fā)稿，鄭州現(xiàn)本地友發(fā)新國標(biāo)產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)價(jià)格4900元/噸，君誠新國標(biāo)產(chǎn)4寸(3.75mm)價(jià)格為4880元/噸，天虹(正大)產(chǎn)4寸(3.75mm)價(jià)格為4890元/噸。
Price: Up to submission, Zhengzhou now has a 4-inch (3.75) national standard production price of 4,900 yuan/ton, Juncheng's 4-inch (3.75 mm) national standard production price of 4,880 yuan/ton, and Tianhong's 4-inch (3.75 mm) production price of 4,890 yuan/ton.

方管