多重利好助力方管價格止跌反彈后再行恢復

隨著華北、華中地區(qū)相繼啟動出臺錯峰限產措施；中美貿易第七輪磋商結束，美國延后對華加征關稅；美聯儲政策由鷹轉鴿；基建項目不斷開工等消息的傳來，方管現貨價格告別5連跌后出現了上漲。近日，華北、華中地區(qū)多地出現重度污染，河北邢臺、邯鄲，河南安陽、鄭州等各地方政府陸續(xù)啟動重污染應急預案。邢臺市自2019年2月20日24時起，重污染天氣橙色(Ⅱ級)預警升級為紅色(Ⅰ級)預警，解除時間另行通知。
With the successive initiation of measures to limit production at staggered peaks in North and Central China, the end of the seventh round of Sino-US trade negotiations, the United States postponed imposing tariffs on China, the policy of the Federal Reserve shifted from Eagle to pigeon, and the continuous start of infrastructure projects, the spot price of square control rose after five consecutive falls. Recently, heavy pollution has occurred in many places in North and Central China. Local governments in Xingtai, Handan, Anyang, Henan and Zhengzhou have launched emergency plans for heavy pollution. Starting from 24:00 on February 20, 2019, the orange (level II) early warning of heavily polluted weather has been upgraded to red (level I) early warning, and the lifting time will be notified separately. 武安市自2019年2月21日8時起，將重污染天氣Ⅱ級(橙色)應急響應升級為Ⅰ級(紅色)應急響應，解除時間另行通知，相關方管企業(yè)已收到相關文件通知。
Since 8:00 on February 21, 2019, Wu'an City has upgraded the emergency response of grade II (orange) to grade I (red) for heavily polluted weather. Release time will be notified separately. Relevant managed enterprises have received notification of relevant documents.

安陽市、鄭州市從2月21日晚20時起，實行紅色管控。市控塵辦要求全市各類建設工地務必從晚21時起停止一切施工行為。安陽市、鄭州所有攪拌站從21時起停止供應商砼；所有渣土車一律停止運輸。此前審批的允許施工工地一律停止施工，等待紅色管控解除后再行恢復。
Anyang City and Zhengzhou City have been under red control since 20 p.m. on February 21. The Municipal Dust Control Office requires all construction sites in the city to stop all construction activities from 21 p.m. All mixing stations in Anyang and Zhengzhou will stop supplying concrete from 21 o'clock, and all dregs and earth trucks will stop transporting. Previously approved construction sites are allowed to stop construction, waiting for the red control to be lifted before resuming.

隨著環(huán)保限產消息的傳出，對近期鋼價起到了提振作用。
With the news of environmental production restriction, steel prices have been boosted in the near future.

同時，需求正在恢復中，市場成交有所好轉。據蘭格方管云商平臺監(jiān)測，北京建材市場日成交量均在6400噸以上。而2月25日，成交最高達7200 噸，這一日成交已創(chuàng)2019年以來的高點。此外，隨著氣溫逐漸回暖，近期各地基建項目不斷開工，需求開始啟動，市場信心逐漸恢復，鋼價將呈現上漲走勢。
Meanwhile, demand is recovering and market turnover is improving. According to the monitoring of Langer Square Tube Cloud Merchant Platform, the daily turnover of Beijing building materials market is more than 6400 tons. On February 25, the highest volume reached 7,200 tons, a high since 2019. In addition, with the gradual warming of the temperature, construction projects around the recent start, demand began to start, market confidence gradually restored, steel prices will show an upward trend.

國內方面，地方債提前開閘“逆周期”調控加碼，1月份信貸和地方融資的釋放力度大，新增信貸和社會融資創(chuàng)歷史新高。隨著宏觀經濟、政策環(huán)境逐漸改善，尤其是貨幣政策的放松對于今年上半年總體大宗商品市場價格形成支撐。
Domestically, local debts opened ahead of schedule "counter-cyclical" regulation and coding. In January, the release of credit and local financing was strong, and new credit and social financing reached a record high. With the gradual improvement of macroeconomic and policy environment, especially the relaxation of monetary policy, the overall commodity market prices in the first half of this year formed a support.

而在國際方面，外貿數據明顯好于預期，減弱中美貿易戰(zhàn)影響擔憂。此外，中美貿易第七輪磋商結束，取得實質性進展，美國延后對華加征關稅；美聯儲政策由鷹轉鴿，有利于大宗商品走勢。
On the international side, the foreign trade data are obviously better than expected, which weakens the worries about the impact of the Sino-US trade war. In addition, the seventh round of Sino-US trade negotiations concluded and substantial progress was made. The United States postponed imposing tariffs on China. The policy of the Federal Reserve shifted from Eagle to dove, which is conducive to the trend of commodities.

庫存方面，截止2月22日，蘭格方管網統(tǒng)計全國29個城市鋼材社會庫存量為1595.9萬噸，較上周增長169.8萬噸，幅度為11.9%；較去 年3月2日，減少了73.4萬噸。蘭格首席分析師馬力表示，2019年冬春季，鋼材庫存主要集中在鋼廠一級代理商手中，還有部分庫存集中在鋼廠手中，與前 兩個冬季相比，庫存結構有一定的優(yōu)勢。前兩個冬季，中小貿易商、終端客戶做了一部分冬儲，這一定程度上限制了這批人的購買能力。而今年冬季，中小貿易商、 終端客戶基本未做冬儲，這個春季，這兩批人的購買力要明顯強于上兩個春季。
As for stocks, as of February 22, the social stocks of steel in 29 cities in China were 15.959 million tons, an increase of 1698,000 tons, or 11.9%, compared with last week, and a decrease of 734,000 tons compared with March 2 last year. In the winter and spring of 2019, steel stocks were mainly concentrated in the hands of the first-level agents of steel mills, and some stocks were concentrated in the hands of steel mills. Compared with the previous two winters, the inventory structure has certain advantages. In the first two winters, small and medium-sized traders and end-users did some winter storage, which limited the purchasing power of these people to a certain extent. This winter, small and medium-sized traders and end-users basically did not do winter storage, this spring, the purchasing power of these two groups of people is significantly stronger than the last two spring.

截止2月26日，據監(jiān)測數據顯示，國內十大重點城市三級方管(Φ25mm)平均價格為3919元/噸，告別5連漲后出現了反彈，價格較2月20日累積上漲了30元/噸。而方管期貨價格在近期也出現了上漲，較2月20日上漲了95元。
As of February 26, according to the monitoring data, the average price of three-tier pipe (25mm) in ten key cities in China was 3919 yuan/ton. After five consecutive increases, the price rebounded, which was 30 yuan/ton higher than the cumulative increase on February 20. The price of Square-controlled futures has also risen recently, up 95 yuan from February 20.

那么鋼價是否還有進一步上漲的空間嗎？
Is there any room for further increases in steel prices?

蘭格方管網研究中心主任王國清表示，近期方管價格出現止跌反彈，主要是受到環(huán)保限產、市場成交好轉、中美貿易取得實際進展等利好消息的影響。而隨著3月份市場需求的全面啟動，鋼價還將有望繼續(xù)出現小幅上升。
Wang Guoqing, director of Langerfang Pipeline Network Research Center, said that the recent rebound in square pipe prices was mainly affected by good news such as environmental restrictions on production, improved market turnover and real progress in Sino-US trade. With the full start of market demand in March, steel prices are expected to continue to rise slightly.

方管