二月份國內(nèi)方管價格探漲后趨穩(wěn)消化庫存為主

2月份，國內(nèi)方管市開市便毫不猶豫喜迎“開門紅”，方管市場由管坯、管廠到市場漸次傳遞。本波上漲潮，管坯價格上調(diào)100元左右，管廠上調(diào)50-100元，主導(dǎo)地區(qū)多上漲50元，個別地區(qū)漲100元，其中上海、無錫、天津、北京、滄州等地區(qū)中等熱軋管報價在4700-4800元之間。另，河南鳳寶、匯豐自節(jié)后上調(diào)方管出廠價格100-150元，尤其對于219-325系列價格有帶動作用，煙寶、魯寶上調(diào)3月份方管價格200元，亦對大口徑管的“常穩(wěn)將軍”進(jìn)一步助力。不過本輪上漲勢頭來的快走的也快，市場回歸供需基本面。其中，巴西尾礦事故影響低于預(yù)期，鐵礦石應(yīng)聲而下，國內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨鋼市進(jìn)入震蕩下行趨勢。然后，終端需求啟動還待時日，鋼廠及社會庫存攀升，尤其節(jié)前囤貨商家隨著價格下行而急于讓利套現(xiàn)，偶有鋼廠試探性上調(diào)出廠價格，期貨持續(xù)上行，但現(xiàn)貨市場主要操作仍是多出貨為主。而方管廠基本保持平，尤其隨著開工率上升，庫存帶來壓力，管坯和方坯價差600元左右，風(fēng)險加劇，均制約方管市場價格拉漲，消化庫存為主。整個2月份，方管市場走勢多處于漲跌兩難的膠著狀態(tài)而顯得漫長，不過底部價格得以夯實。
In February, when the domestic steel market opened, it did not hesitate to welcome the "red door", and the square tube market was gradually transferred from billet and factory to market. In the current upsurge, the price of pipe blanks has been raised by about 100 yuan, pipe mills by 50-100 yuan, leading areas by more than 50 yuan, and individual areas by 100 yuan, including Shanghai, Wuxi, Tianjin, Beijing, Cangzhou and other areas of medium-sized hot-rolled pipes quoted between 4700-4800 yuan. In addition, Henan Fengbao and HSBC have raised the ex-factory price of square tubes by 100-150 yuan since the restraint, especially for 219-325 series. Yanbao and Lubao have raised the price of square tubes by 200 yuan in March, which is also helpful to the "General Chang Wen" of large-caliber tubes. However, this round of rising momentum is also fast moving, the market returns to the supply and demand fundamentals. Among them, the impact of Brazilian tailings accident is lower than expected, iron ore came down, domestic spot steel market entered a downward trend of shock. Then, the terminal demand is still waiting for time to start, steel mills and social stocks are rising, especially the pre-season hoarders are eager to cash in with the price down, occasionally steel mills tentatively raise the ex-factory price, futures continue to rise, but the main operation of the spot market is still more shipments. However, square pipe factories are basically flat. Especially with the increase of start-up rate, stock pressure, the price difference between billet and billet is about 600 yuan, and the risk is increasing. All these restrict the price of square pipe market to rise, and digest inventory mainly. Throughout February, the market tended to stick to the dilemma of rising and falling, but the bottom price was consolidated. 據(jù)監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至2月28日，全國重點城市108*4.5mm均價5028元，比上月同期上漲28元。
According to monitoring data, as of February 28, the average price of 108*4.5mm in key cities in China was 5028 yuan, up 28 yuan from the same period last month.

二、管坯、方坯價差大
2. Big price difference between tube billet and square billet

2月底，唐山方坯報價3480元，山東魯麗、江鑫鋼廠出廠價格分別4000元、4050元。方坯和管坯價差擴(kuò)至520-570元，而2月中旬兩者價差達(dá)600余噸，遠(yuǎn)超合理價差250元。月底管坯鋼廠年前訂單基本發(fā)完，年后無協(xié)議鋼廠訂單多是零散訂單為主，鋼廠面臨新訂單壓力。不過鑒于年前管廠囤貨不多，多數(shù)是15天左右，長者達(dá)一月，而隨著管廠開工率攀升，管坯消化加入加速階段，采購管坯無疑會同步上升。
At the end of February, Tangshan billet quoted 3480 yuan, while Shandong Luli and Jiangxin Steel Co., Ltd. ex-factory prices were 4000 yuan and 4050 yuan respectively. The price difference between square billet and tube billet increased to 520-570 yuan, while in mid-February the price difference between the two reached more than 600 tons, far exceeding the reasonable price difference of 250 yuan. At the end of this month, orders for billet mills were basically completed before the end of the year, and for non-agreement mills after the end of the year, orders for billet mills were mostly scattered orders, and steel mills were facing new orders pressure. However, in view of the fact that there were not many stockpiles in the previous year, most of them lasted for about 15 days, and the elderly lasted for one month. With the increase of the start-up rate of the pipe plant, the digestion of the billets and the acceleration of the process, the purchase of billets will undoubtedly rise simultaneously.

方管