全國29個重點(diǎn)城市方管社會庫存量為1623.9萬噸

方管社會庫存扭轉(zhuǎn)3個月上升趨勢，出現(xiàn)首度下降；環(huán)保再度趨嚴(yán)，近期多地發(fā)布限產(chǎn)通知；兩會定調(diào)，基建力度再次加碼；天氣回暖，下游需求陸續(xù)啟動。隨著利好消息的不斷傳出，鋼價會不會一改年后震蕩模式，出現(xiàn)大幅上漲呢？截止2019年3月8日，據(jù)蘭格鋼鐵云商平臺監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全國29個重點(diǎn)城市方管社會庫存量為1623.9萬噸，較上周減少19.1萬噸，周環(huán)比下降1.2%，年同比下降8.0%；方管社會庫存出現(xiàn)春節(jié)后首次回落。從數(shù)據(jù)上可以看出，今年庫存下降時間與去年基本一致，而且今年的庫存的高點(diǎn)較去年有所下降，而且降速要高于去年。隨著庫存的下降，對于鋼價形成了一定的支撐。
The social inventory of Fangguan has reversed the three-month upward trend and declined for the first time; the environmental protection has become stricter again, and recently many production restriction notices have been issued; the two sessions have been set, and the capital construction efforts have been increased again; the weather has warmed up, and downstream demand has started one after another. With the continuous spread of good news, will steel prices rise sharply after a year of shocks? As of March 8, 2019, according to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Merchant Platform, the social inventory of square managers in 29 key cities in China was 16.239 million tons, down by 191,000 tons compared with last week, down by 1.2% on the circumference ratio and 8.0% on the year-on-year basis; the social inventory of square managers fell for the first time after the Spring Festival. From the data, we can see that this year's inventory decline time is basically the same as last year, and this year's inventory highs have declined from last year, and the decline rate is higher than last year. With the decline of inventory, steel prices have formed a certain support. 環(huán)保政策也呈現(xiàn)趨嚴(yán)的狀況，在兩會之前，唐山市便發(fā)布相應(yīng)的環(huán)保停產(chǎn)令，其中燒結(jié)限產(chǎn)，軋鋼停產(chǎn)。隨著兩會開幕空氣轉(zhuǎn)好，本該解除的限產(chǎn)令卻直接轉(zhuǎn)變成延長停產(chǎn)令；日前，唐山印發(fā)《3月份大氣污染防治強(qiáng)化管控措施實(shí)施方案》，管控時間為2019年3月1日至31日。河北武安等鋼鐵行業(yè)自3月3日至3月31日錯峰生產(chǎn)、3月份鋼廠集中檢修等，對于方管產(chǎn)量起到了一定影響。
The environmental protection policy is also becoming stricter. Before the two sessions, Tangshan City issued corresponding environmental protection shutdown orders, including sintering production restriction and rolling production shutdown. As the air improved at the opening of the two sessions, the production restriction order that should have been lifted was directly transformed into a prolonged stop-production order. Recently, Tangshan issued the "Implementation Plan of Enhanced Control Measures for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in March", which lasted from March 1 to 31, 2019. Hebei Wuan and other iron and steel industries from March 3 to March 31 staggered peak production, March steel plant centralized overhaul, etc., has played a certain impact on square pipe production.

同時，受環(huán)保限產(chǎn)政策趨嚴(yán)影響，本周部分地區(qū)鋼廠檢修快速增加，國內(nèi)中小鋼企高爐開工率降速加大，增加區(qū)域主要以山西和河北地區(qū)為主。截止，2019年3月8日，蘭格鋼鐵云商平臺調(diào)查的全國百家中小型鋼鐵企業(yè)中，有75家鋼廠113座高爐進(jìn)行檢修(含停產(chǎn)及燜爐設(shè)備，下同)，比上周增11座(本周11座高爐新增檢修，0座高爐復(fù)產(chǎn))，檢修高爐容積為94310立方米，比上周增加9140立方米，按容積計算百家中小鋼鐵企業(yè)高爐開工率為74.26%，比上周降2.49個百分點(diǎn)，比去年同期高1個百分點(diǎn)。預(yù)計今年一季度全國鋼產(chǎn)量與去年同期相比增量有限。
At the same time, affected by the stricter policy of environmental protection and production restriction, steel mill overhaul in some areas increased rapidly this week, and blast furnace start-up rate of domestic small and medium-sized steel enterprises increased, mainly in Shanxi and Hebei. As of March 8, 2019, among the 100 small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises surveyed by Lange Iron and Steel Yunchang Platform, 113 blast furnaces in 75 steel plants have been repaired (including shutdown and baking equipment, the same below), 11 more than last week (11 new blast furnaces are repaired this week, 0 blast furnaces are re-produced). The volume of the repaired blast furnaces is 94310 cubic meters, 9140 cubic meters more than last week, and 100 small and medium-sized iron and steel are calculated by volume. The blast furnace start-up rate of enterprises is 74.26%, which is 2.49 percentage points lower than that of last week and 1 percentage point higher than that of the same period last year. In the first quarter of this year, the national steel production is expected to increase by a limited amount compared with the same period last year.

此外，在兩會工作報告中，強(qiáng)調(diào)持續(xù)推進(jìn)污染防治工作，要改革完善相關(guān)制度，協(xié)調(diào)推動高質(zhì)量發(fā)展與生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)。對于鋼鐵行業(yè)實(shí)行超低排放改造，實(shí)施重污染行業(yè)達(dá)標(biāo)排放改造。加大“破、立、降”力度，推進(jìn)鋼鐵、煤炭行業(yè)市場化去產(chǎn)能。
In addition, in the report on the work of the two sessions, it was emphasized that the work of pollution prevention and control should be continuously promoted, relevant systems should be reformed and improved, and high-quality development and ecological environment protection should be coordinated and promoted. For the iron and steel industry, the ultra-low emission transformation will be carried out, and the heavy pollution industry will be reformed to meet the discharge standards. We will intensify efforts to "break, stand and fall" and promote market-oriented production of iron and steel and coal industries.

基建方面，今年的兩會工作報告中提出，將新增高速鐵路運(yùn)營里程4100公里，新建改建高速公路6000多公里、農(nóng)村公路30多萬公里。并合理擴(kuò)大有效投資，完成鐵路投資8000億元、公路水運(yùn)投資1.8萬億元，再開工一批重大水利工程。今年中央預(yù)算內(nèi)投資安排5776億元，比去年增加400億元。
In terms of infrastructure construction, the report on the work of this year's NPC and CPPCC sessions proposed that the new high-speed railway operation mileage will be 4100 kilometers, the new highway will be rebuilt more than 6,000 kilometers, and the rural highway will be more than 300,000 kilometers. We will rationally expand effective investment, complete 800 billion yuan in railway investment, 1.8 trillion yuan in highway and waterway investment, and start a number of major water conservancy projects. This year, the central budget allocated 577.6 billion yuan for investment, an increase of 40 billion yuan over last year.

從需求方面來看，雖然年后部分地區(qū)天氣情況不佳，雨雪天氣頻繁。但是近期天氣逐漸轉(zhuǎn)好，隨著氣溫回升，下游項(xiàng)目也陸續(xù)開工，需求將不斷增加。從蘭格鋼鐵網(wǎng)監(jiān)測的北京建材市場日成交量來看，3月份北京建材市場日成交量最高已攀升至9500噸，較去年同期高點(diǎn)超2000余噸。
From the demand point of view, although the weather in some areas after the year is not good, the rain and snow weather is frequent. But the weather is getting better in the near future. With the temperature rising, downstream projects are also starting, and demand will continue to increase. From the daily turnover of Beijing building materials market monitored by Langer Iron and Steel Network, the daily turnover of Beijing building materials market in March has climbed to 9,500 tons, which is more than 2,000 tons higher than the same period last year.

那么后期鋼價是否能大幅上漲，出現(xiàn)一飛沖天的現(xiàn)象呢？
Then, can steel prices rise substantially in the later period, and there will be a phenomena of skyrocketing?

分析師馬力表示，從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、貨幣政策、中美貿(mào)易趨向合作、庫存壓力較小等方面來看，今年3-4月份，國內(nèi)方管市場環(huán)境好于上年同期，總體價格以穩(wěn)為主，很難出現(xiàn)大漲，但也不具備大跌的條件。
Analyst Ma Li said that from the macroeconomic, monetary policy, Sino-US trade trend cooperation, less inventory pressure and other aspects, in March-April this year, the domestic market environment is better than the same period last year, the overall price is stable, it is difficult to rise sharply, but also do not have the conditions for a sharp fall.

分析師馬廣慧表示，目前要重點(diǎn)關(guān)注需求啟動、去庫存速度、鋼廠產(chǎn)量以及環(huán)保的實(shí)際落地情況，同時對于期貨的移倉換月以及市場情緒也要多加關(guān)注。在目前需求沒有被證偽的情況下，從中長期來看，市場震蕩上行的機(jī)會仍然存在。
Ma Guanghui, an analyst, said that at present, we should focus on demand start-up, the speed of inventory removal, steel plant production and the actual landing of environmental protection. At the same time, we should pay more attention to the transfer of futures and market sentiment. In the absence of falsification of current demand, in the medium and long term, there is still an upward opportunity for market shocks.

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