本周天津方管市場小幅震蕩運行商家悲觀心態(tài)加重

本周天津方管市場小幅震蕩運行。上周后期鋼價短暫反彈之后，上周末鋼坯價格便出現(xiàn)了回落。周初兩日，期螺震蕩下行，鋼坯價 格也繼續(xù)下跌，天津方管商家悲觀心態(tài)加重，天津方管市場價格小幅下跌。周中期，期螺和鋼坯價格反彈，期螺收復3700，鋼坯重回3550，市場悲觀情緒得 到緩解，但由于成交較弱，現(xiàn)貨市場并未跟進，天津方管市場價格以穩(wěn)為主。周后期，期螺和鋼坯繼續(xù)小幅反彈，天津方管大戶試探性小幅上調(diào)報價，天津方管市場 價格小幅反彈。

This week, Tianjin Fangguan market has been shaking slightly. After a brief rebound in steel prices late last week, billet prices fell over the weekend. On the first two days of the week, the concussion of futures snails went down, and the price of billets continued to fall. The pessimistic attitude of Tianjin square tube traders increased, and the price of Tianjin square tube market fell slightly. In the mid-week, the prices of futures snails and billets rebounded, futures snails recovered 3700, billets returned 3550, and the market pessimism was alleviated. However, due to weak transactions, the spot market did not follow up, and the price of Tianjin square tube market was mainly stable. Later in the week, snails and billets continued to rebound slightly, big square tube households in Tianjin tentatively raised their quotations slightly, and the price of square tube Market in Tianjin rebounded slightly. 環(huán)保和需求支撐都減弱，預(yù)期較悲觀。雖然近期環(huán)保政策趨嚴，但部分地區(qū)限產(chǎn)力度暫時卻沒有達到相關(guān)規(guī)定的要求，數(shù)據(jù)顯示，自5月5日起，生態(tài)環(huán)境 部陸續(xù)公布中央環(huán)保督察“回頭看”專項督察情況。截止目前，湖南、湖北、山西等7省份督察結(jié)果已公布。從整體督察情況來看，7省份在整改問題上雖然取得顯 著進展，但是有些地方仍然存在一些重要任務(wù)沒有整改到位，甚至存在敷衍整改、表面整改、假裝整改的問題。而這也進一步減弱了市場對環(huán)保限產(chǎn)政策的反應(yīng)，市 場普遍心態(tài)認為限產(chǎn)政策和落實存在較大差異。而需求方面，隨著天氣的轉(zhuǎn)熱，淡季需求特點越來越明顯，下游采購明顯減弱，大戶日成交量在200-1000 噸，較前段時間成交量有較大下滑，需求支撐減弱。

Environmental protection and demand support have weakened, and expectations are pessimistic. Although the recent environmental protection policy has become stricter, the capacity of production restriction in some areas has not met the requirements of relevant regulations for the time being. The data show that since May 5, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has published the special supervision situation of the central environmental protection inspector "looking back". Up to now, the results of supervision in Hunan, Hubei, Shanxi and other seven provinces have been published. From the overall situation of supervision, although the seven provinces have made remarkable progress in rectification, there are still some important tasks that have not been rectified in place, and even problems of perfunctory rectification, surface rectification and pretend rectification. This also further weakens the market's response to the policy of environmental production restriction, which is generally believed to be quite different from the implementation of the policy. On the demand side, with the heat of the weather, off-season demand characteristics become more and more obvious, downstream purchasing is significantly weakened, daily turnover of large households is 200-1000 tons, which has a larger decline compared with the previous period, and demand support is weakened.

中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)先升級后緩和的套路再重演，期現(xiàn)兩市猶如過山車。前不久，美方將2000億美元中國輸美商品的關(guān)稅從10%上調(diào)至25%，5月13日， 中國也出手反制，自2019年6月1日0時起，對已實施加征關(guān)稅的600億美元清單美國商品中的部分，提高加征關(guān)稅稅率，分別實施25%、20%或10% 加征關(guān)稅。對之前加征5%關(guān)稅的稅目商品，仍繼續(xù)加征5%關(guān)稅。消息一出，中美股市期貨血流成河，加重了天津方管市場悲觀情緒。而5月14日，美國財政部 發(fā)言人稱，美國財長姆努欽計劃近期前往中國進行經(jīng)貿(mào)談判，中美經(jīng)貿(mào)磋商仍在繼續(xù)。特朗普也將計劃于6月末在日本舉行的20國集團領(lǐng)導人峰會期間與中國領(lǐng)導 會晤。市場悲觀情緒亦得到有效緩解。

The trade war between China and the United States escalated first, then moderated, and then repeated. It is hoped that the two cities will be like roller coasters. Not long ago, the United States raised tariffs on 200 billion US dollars of Chinese goods imported to the United States from 10% to 25%. On May 13, China also counteracted. Since 10:00 on June 1, 2019, tariff increases have been imposed on some of the 60 billion US dollars in the list of US goods that have been imposed tariffs, with tariff increases of 25%, 20% or 10% respectively. Tariffs on items previously subject to a 5% tariff will continue to be imposed. As soon as the news came out, China and the United States stock market futures flowed into a river, which aggravated the pessimism of Tianjin Fangguan market. On May 14, a spokesman for the U.S. Treasury Department said that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin planned to travel to China for economic and trade negotiations in the near future, and the Sino-U.S. economic and trade negotiations continued. Trump is also scheduled to meet with Chinese leaders during the G-20 Leaders'summit in Japan in late June. Market pessimism has also been effectively alleviated.

綜合來看，本周天津方管市場在基本面震蕩偏空，中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)形勢跌宕起伏的作用下小幅震蕩運行。目前看供給大幅走弱的可能性非常低，而中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)短期也充滿了各種不確定性，下周天津方管市場繼續(xù)下行的可能性很大。因此，預(yù)計下周天津方管市場價格將震蕩下行。

To sum up, this week, Tianjin's quadrant management market was shocked and empty on the basic level, and the situation of Sino-US trade war fluctuated slightly. At present, the possibility of substantial weakening of supply is very low, and the short-term trade war between China and the United States is also full of uncertainties, and the possibility of Tianjin's Square Management Market continuing to decline next week is very high. Therefore, it is expected that Tianjin Fangguan's market price will fluctuate downward next week.

價格方面，截至5月17日午間，天津市場上河北鋼鐵集團產(chǎn)HPB300Φ6.5-10mm高線價格為4660-4740 元，比上周價格漲40元；河北鋼鐵集團產(chǎn)Φ18-25mm三級抗震螺紋鋼價格為4020-4070元，基本與上周價格持平；三級盤螺價格為4120元，比 上周價格跌10元。

In terms of price, as of the noon of May 17, the price of HPB300 6.5-10mm high-speed line produced by Hebei Iron and Steel Group in Tianjin market was 4660-4740 yuan, 40 yuan higher than last week's price; the price of 18-25mm three-stage aseismic threaded steel produced by Hebei Iron and Steel Group was 4020-4070 yuan, basically the same as last week's price; the price of third-stage threaded steel was 4120 yuan, 10 yuan lower than last week's price

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