產量飆高庫存反降方管市場回調空間暫不大

今日黑色系寬幅震蕩，強原料弱成材，尾盤雙焦及鐵礦石收漲，期螺、熱卷仍然下跌。移倉換月之際主力伴隨大量減倉，獲利套現(xiàn)，但總體表現(xiàn)相對溫和，在利好占據(jù)主導的情況下，并未出現(xiàn)特別劇烈的波動。
Today, the black series of wide shocks, strong raw materials and weak finished products, tail coke and iron ore rose, snail, hot coil still fell. During the period of changing positions for the moon, the main force was accompanied by a large number of reduction in positions and profit arbitrage, but the overall performance was relatively mild, and there was no particularly violent fluctuation under the dominant favorable situation.

現(xiàn)貨方面，受夜盤回落影響以及市場恐高情緒的困擾，市場心態(tài)偏于觀望，大部分商家加快出貨迅速，售價出現(xiàn)小幅松動。且實際成交亦存在壓價出貨的情況。但鋼價 連續(xù)數(shù)月的向上拉漲，已處年內高位，下游終端采購積極性亦不是很高，整體成交量表現(xiàn)一般，對價格持續(xù)拉漲起到抑制，短期上方空間較為有限。
Spot, affected by the decline in the night market and the fear of high sentiment in the market, the market mentality bias to wait-and-see, most of the merchants to speed up the delivery of goods quickly, price slightly loosened. And the actual transaction also exists at the price of shipment. However, steel prices have been rising for several consecutive months, has been at a high level in the year, downstream terminal procurement enthusiasm is not high, the overall turnover performance is general, the price continued to rise to suppress, short-term upper space is limited.

同 時，由于主力移倉1901合約，后期將面臨較往年更為嚴格的采暖季限產。據(jù)最新消息，繼江西、廣西、河北邢臺以及唐山之后，山東省公布打贏藍天保衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)作戰(zhàn) 方案，同時浙江開始推動實施鋼鐵等行業(yè)超低排放改造。加之環(huán)保常態(tài)化造成的臨時性限電、限產的突然襲擊，對市場持續(xù)產生供給收縮的預期仍然偏強。
At the same time, due to the main relocation of warehouse 1901 contract, the latter will face more stringent heating season production restrictions than in previous years. According to the latest news, following Jiangxi, Guangxi, Hebei Xingtai and Tangshan, Shandong Province announced the plan to win the blue sky defense battle, while Zhejiang began to promote the implementation of ultra-low emission transformation of steel and other industries. With the sudden attack of temporary power cuts and production limits caused by normalization of environmental protection, the expectation of continuous supply contraction in the market is still strong.

另外，下游在采暖季之前趕工的現(xiàn)象在往年表現(xiàn)突出，對市場的影響較大。今年限電力度較去年加強，或仍出現(xiàn)類似情況，將對價格形成支撐。雖然短期內未必產生明 顯拉動，但隨著高溫多雨天氣的減少，鋼市需求暫不存在較大的壓力。這在庫存數(shù)據(jù)方面已經體現(xiàn)出來，最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，螺紋社會庫存繼續(xù)下降，前期擔心的累庫現(xiàn) 象并未出現(xiàn)，這是在7月鋼產量創(chuàng)紀錄高位的情況下的庫存降低，對市場信心起到支撐。但同時廠庫小幅上抬，或說明貿易商存在謹慎心理，主動備貨開始減少。
In addition, the downstream in the heating season before the rush phenomenon in previous years, the market has a greater impact. This year's power limit is stronger than last year, or similar conditions will still appear, which will support the price formation. Although the short-term may not produce a significant pull, but with the reduction of high temperature and rainy weather, steel market demand temporarily does not exist a greater pressure. This has been reflected in the inventory data, the latest data show that the threaded social inventory continues to decline, the previous worry about the accumulation of the phenomenon did not appear, this is in July steel production record high in the case of inventory reduction, to support market confidence. But at the same time the warehouse slightly increased, or that traders are cautious, active inventory began to reduce.

而當前恐高情緒仍然揮之不去，不僅體現(xiàn)期貨市場情緒面以及資金面，終端接受度也在下降。期現(xiàn)貨市場技術面也正處在關鍵點位，雖然中美貿易戰(zhàn)停留在你打我一拳我回敬你一拳的“打鬧”階段，但其不確定性始終是懸在頭上的一把利劍。
The current fear of heights is still lingering, not only reflects the emotional and financial aspects of the futures market, terminal acceptance is also declining.  The technical aspect of the spot market is also at a critical point. Although the Sino-US trade war is still at the stage of "fighting" when you hit me and I give you a blow back, its uncertainty is always a sharp sword hanging over your head.

預計，近期鋼市上方空間有限，短期可能要面臨回調一下的可能。但向下又有支撐，在沒有重大利多或利空的前提下，市場仍然保持高位震蕩的可能性較大。
It is predicted that there will be limited space on the steel market in the near future, which may be faced with a short-term correction. But there is downward support, in the absence of significant bullish or bearish premises, the market is still likely to remain high volatility.

據(jù)監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今日，國內重點城市Ф25mm三級螺紋鋼平均價格4406元(噸價，下同)，較昨日跌6元；國內重點城市Ф6.5mm高線平均價格為4728元，較昨日跌1元；國內重點城市5.5mm熱軋卷板平均價格為4310元，較昨日跌10元；國內重點中心城市1.0mm冷板的平均價格為4744元，較昨日跌2元；國內重點城市20mm中板平均價格4414元，較昨日跌4元。
According to the monitoring data, the average price of grade_25mm high-speed wire rod in the key cities of China is 4 406 yuan (tonnage price, the same below), 6 yuan lower than yesterday; the average price of grade_6.5mm high-speed wire rod in the key cities of China is 4 728 yuan, 1 yuan lower than yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil in the key cities of China is 4 310 yuan, 10 yuan lower than yesterday; The average price of the 1.0mm cold plate in the central city is 4 744 yuan, down 2 yuan from yesterday, and the average price of the 20mm medium plate in the key cities is 4 414 yuan, down 4 yuan from yesterday.

原料方面，今日，唐山地區(qū)150*150普碳方坯3900元，較昨日持平；京唐港61.5%品位澳大利亞PB鐵礦粉價格為505元，較昨日漲2元；唐山地區(qū)準一級冶金焦含稅到廠價格2160元，較昨日持平。
As for raw materials, the price of 150 *150 carbon billets in Tangshan is 3 900 yuan, which is flat compared with yesterday; the price of 61.5% Australian PB iron ore powder in Jingtang Port is 505 yuan, which is 2 yuan higher than yesterday; the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan is 2 160 yuan, which is flat compared with yesterday.