限產(chǎn)預(yù)期不明 “銀十”方管市場旺季難旺

在方管市場預(yù)計京津冀及周邊地區(qū)采暖季將嚴(yán)格限產(chǎn)之際，相關(guān)政策表示不再明確限產(chǎn)比例，并明令禁止環(huán)保限產(chǎn)一刀切。預(yù)期發(fā)生改變，導(dǎo)致鋼價“金九”出現(xiàn)了高位寬幅震蕩。方管行業(yè)分析師在接受上證報記者采訪時表示，限產(chǎn)情況不明朗加上短期需求缺乏亮點，“銀十”鋼市旺季難旺。

When the management market predicts that heating season in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and the surrounding areas will be strictly limited, the relevant policies no longer specify the proportion of production restrictions, and explicitly prohibit environmental production restrictions. Expected changes, resulting in steel price "Kim Gu" appeared high and wide shocks. In an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange, an analyst from the square management industry said that the uncertain production restriction and the lack of bright spot in short-term demand made the "Yin Shi" steel market difficult to prosper in the peak season.

唐山市政府近日發(fā)布了《重點行業(yè)秋冬季差異化錯峰生產(chǎn)績效評價指導(dǎo)意見的通知》，將方管企業(yè)分為ABCD四類在秋冬季期間進(jìn)行錯峰生產(chǎn)，分別為不錯峰、錯峰 30%、錯峰50%和錯峰70%。另有市場消息稱，另一個方管生產(chǎn)大省江蘇近期也將采取限產(chǎn)措施。記者從江蘇一家鋼廠負(fù)責(zé)人處獲悉，對限產(chǎn)有心理準(zhǔn)備，但 截至目前尚未收到書面通知。限產(chǎn)形勢尚不明確。

Tangshan Municipal Government recently issued a "key industries in autumn and winter differential staggered peak production performance evaluation guidance notice," will be divided into four types of ABCD in autumn and winter staggered peak production, respectively, good peak, staggered peak 30%, 50% and staggered peak 70%. Another market source said that Jiangsu, another big producer of square tube production, will also take measures to limit production in the near future. Reporters from a steel plant in Jiangsu Province, the person in charge of the Department was informed that there are psychological preparations for limiting production, but so far has not received written notice. The situation of production restriction is not clear.

分析師方式表示，從限產(chǎn)強(qiáng)度來看，唐山地區(qū)要低于去年。由于市場對于正式文件的出臺已有心理準(zhǔn)備和預(yù)期，前期征求意見稿對市場的影響已經(jīng)基本消化，加之近半年限產(chǎn)政策頻出，市場對于限產(chǎn)預(yù)期已產(chǎn)生疲勞情緒。

Analysts said that from the intensity of production restriction, Tangshan was lower than last year. As the market has psychological preparation and expectations for the introduction of official documents, the impact of the early draft on the market has been basically digested, coupled with the frequent production-limit policy in the last half of the year, the market has been fatigued for production-limit expectations.

“今年以來，全國各地紛紛出臺環(huán)保減排方案，方管環(huán)保限產(chǎn)幾乎貫穿全年，對價格形成擾動的同時，也在一定程度上打亂了方管需求的采購節(jié)奏。淡季不淡在一定程度上是透支了旺季行情�！狈治鰩熜炖蚍f表示。

"Since this year, various parts of the country have introduced environmental protection and emission reduction programs, the environmental protection of the square tube production restriction almost throughout the year, the price of a disturbance at the same time, to a certain extent, also disrupted the procurement rhythm of the demand for square tube. In the off-season, to some extent, the market is overdrawn. Analyst Xu Liying said.

根據(jù)相關(guān)文件，唐山方管行業(yè)環(huán)保限產(chǎn)從10月1日開始執(zhí)行，江蘇鋼廠限產(chǎn)尚無明確文件。對此，太平洋證券有色方管團(tuán)隊表示，在高利潤驅(qū)動下，近期方管供給預(yù)計仍偏寬松，短期鋼價看空。中期看，大部分企業(yè)預(yù)計將在采暖季之前完成超低排放改造，供給側(cè)總體寬松應(yīng)該是大概率事件。從需求端來看，未來基建及消費有邊際改善的空間，能否對沖供給寬松仍需要觀察。

According to the relevant documents, the environmental protection production limit of Tangshan Square Tube Industry has been implemented since October 1, and there is no clear document on the production limit of Jiangsu Steel Works. In response, the Pacific Securities Nonferrous Square Management Team said that, driven by high profits, the supply of square tubes is expected to remain loose in the near future, short-term steel prices. In the medium term, most companies are expected to complete ultra-low emissions before the heating season, and overall supply-side easing should be a probable event. From the demand side, there is room for marginal improvement in infrastructure and consumption in the future. Whether the supply can be hedged loosely remains to be seen.

分析師馬力表示，由于當(dāng)前的鋼市價格水平相對較高，鋼貿(mào)商投機(jī)性購買意愿非常弱，主要靠剛需支持市場的銷售�，F(xiàn)階段鋼材需求總量保持相對正常的水平，鋼價不太容易形成比較明顯的上漲走勢，保持震蕩的可能性更大。

Analyst Ma Li said that because the current steel market price level is relatively high, steel traders speculative purchasing intention is very weak, mainly rely on just needed to support market sales. At this stage, the total demand for steel maintains a relatively normal level, steel prices are not easy to form a relatively obvious upward trend, the possibility of maintaining volatility is greater.