本周周國內(nèi)焊管價格或弱勢震蕩為主

國內(nèi)焊管價格大幅回落，監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至11月16日，國內(nèi)十大重點城市4寸焊管均價為 4488元(噸價，下同)，比上周同期焊管價格下跌84元，各中心城市均有不同程度的下跌，其中唐山下調(diào)140元、天津下調(diào)130元、北京降100元、西 安降50元、武漢降100元、沈陽降50元、上海降70元、濟南降100元、廣州降70元、成都降30元，市場成交較弱。
Domestic welded pipe prices have fallen sharply. Monitoring data show that as of November 16, the average price of 4-inch welded pipe in ten key cities in China was 4488 yuan (ton price, the same below), 84 yuan lower than that in the same period last week. The prices of welded pipe in all central cities have fallen to varying degrees, including 140 yuan lower in Tangshan, 130 yuan lower in Tianjin, 100 yuan lower in Beijing and 100 yuan lower in West China. Anjian 50 yuan, Wuhan 100 yuan, Shenyang 50 yuan, Shanghai 70 yuan, Jinan 100 yuan, Guangzhou 70 yuan, Chengdu 30 yuan, the market turnover is weak. 原料方面
Raw materials

鋼坯方面，截至今日唐山鋼坯報價3680元，比上周同期降120元。本周(11.12-11.16)鋼坯市場大幅下挫后開始低位整理，市場瞬間跌 入冰點。本周雖然包含唐山、北京等華北城市突然遭受重污染天氣，但由于影響時間較短，加之之前及之后的空氣均相對良好，故從部分廠家反饋，本次限產(chǎn)力度及 時間均要弱于去年，而鋼坯方面由于多數(shù)鋼廠板帶型產(chǎn)成品的利潤微薄，加之成交低迷，故選擇鋼坯作為突破口的廠家增多，這就造成成材成交弱，有高爐的企業(yè)開 始加大鋼坯外賣；而成材成交弱，調(diào)坯鋼廠采購意愿就低，這又加大了供過于求的形勢。惡性循環(huán)周而復(fù)始，鋼坯的壓力迅速加大。鋼坯大跌后修復(fù)緩慢，不排除繼 續(xù)下探的可能。
As for billet, as of today, Tangshan billet quotation is 3680 yuan, down 120 yuan compared with the same period last week. This week (11.12-11.16) the steel billet market began to lower after finishing a sharp fall, and the market instantly fell into freezing point. This week, although Tangshan, Beijing and other North China cities suddenly suffered from heavily polluted weather, but due to the short impact time and the relatively good air before and after, feedback from some manufacturers shows that the limited productivity and time are weaker than last year, while in the billet sector, the profits of the strip products produced by most steel mills are slight. In addition to the low turnover, the number of manufacturers choosing billet as a breakthrough increased, which resulted in weak finished product turnover, and enterprises with blast furnaces began to increase billet takeout; and weak finished product turnover resulted in low purchasing willingness of billet adjusting mills, which increased the situation of oversupply. The vicious circle is going round and round, and the pressure of billet is increasing rapidly. After the steel billet collapsed, the repair was slow, and the possibility of further investigation could not be ruled out.

帶鋼方面，截至今日唐山熱軋帶鋼(2.5*355mm)唐山瑞豐3860，相比上周跌100元。截至目前，本周唐山鋼坯累跌120元，期貨下行明 顯。貿(mào)易商拿貨積極性不高，低價出貨為主，調(diào)坯廠成本倒掛明顯，壓力加劇。加之采暖季環(huán)保限產(chǎn)政策并未對帶鋼市場實際產(chǎn)量產(chǎn)生明顯影響。唐山熱帶庫存繼續(xù) 下降，廠商主動出庫，市場信心偏弱，受套保盤虛擬庫存及黑色系期貨打壓影響，且當(dāng)前熱卷價格萎靡不振，對寬帶市場繼續(xù)形成壓制，當(dāng)前市場需求交弱觀望情緒 濃。對于后市，商家心態(tài)較差，悲觀看市，鋼坯大跌引起恐慌情緒，南北價差偏小導(dǎo)致商家發(fā)貨積極性差，下游用戶按需采購，謹慎觀望為主，多數(shù)認為目前價格尚 未觸底，拿貨意愿更低。綜合看，預(yù)計下周價格或還繼續(xù)趨弱。
As for the steel strip, as of today, Tangshan hot rolled strip (2.5*355mm) Tangshan Ruifeng 3860, down 100 yuan compared to last week. Up to now, Tangshan billet fell 120 yuan this week, futures downward obvious. Traders have low enthusiasm and low price shipments, and the cost of the plant is obviously upside down. In addition, the policy of environmental protection and limited production in the heating season has not significantly affected the actual output of the strip Market. Tangshan tropical inventory continues to decline, manufacturers take the initiative to leave the warehouse, market confidence is weak, affected by hedging virtual inventory and black futures, and the current hot coil prices are depressed, the broadband market continues to be suppressed, the current market demand is weak and wait-and-see mood is strong. For the future market, the business mentality is poor, pessimistic market, steel slab plunge caused panic, the small price gap between North and South led to poor enthusiasm for business delivery, downstream users purchase on demand, cautious wait and see, most believe that the current price has not reached the bottom, lower willingness to take goods. On the whole, prices are expected to continue to weaken next week.

管廠方面
Pipe factory

上個周末，鋼坯大跌100元的消息在朋友圈刷了屏，受此影響，鋼市情緒普遍悲觀，現(xiàn)貨各品種價格應(yīng)聲下跌，周初開市，期鋼繼續(xù)領(lǐng)跌拉低現(xiàn)貨市場價 格，津冀地區(qū)焊鍍管出廠價下調(diào)80-100元不等。周中，價格再次下探，不過隨著河北啟動為期15天大氣環(huán)境法專項行動以及鄭州發(fā)布停工整改工地名單等多 方消息的發(fā)布，期盤止跌反彈，帶動現(xiàn)貨成交氛圍有所好轉(zhuǎn)，但就此說明市場反轉(zhuǎn)還為時尚早。從筆者市場了解到的情況來看，市場情緒依然偏悲觀，普遍認為仍有 下跌空間，津冀地區(qū)焊管報價以穩(wěn)為主。臨近周末，上游再次探底，焊鍍管報價繼續(xù)穩(wěn)中下調(diào)，目前河北主流管廠4寸焊管出廠報價為4060-4340元，與主 導(dǎo)鋼廠355mm系列帶鋼出廠價相差200元左右，除去帶鋼廠的優(yōu)惠政策、管廠出貨時議價空間以及其他各地原料運輸成本等各方面因素，目前管廠盈利空間有 限，倒掛情況依然較突出，管廠用卷板代替帶鋼的情況也時有發(fā)生，尤其是大規(guī)格較明顯。
Last weekend, the news of billet plunge of 100 yuan in the circle of friends brushed the screen. Affected by this, the mood of steel market is generally pessimistic. Spot prices of various varieties fell. The market opened early in the week. Futures Steel continues to lead the decline in spot market prices, and the ex-factory price of welded and plated pipes in Jinji region decreased by 80-100 yuan. In the middle of the week, prices fell again, but with the launching of a 15-day special action on atmospheric environment law in Hebei and the release of news from Zhengzhou, such as the list of sites for work stoppage and renovation, the market rebounded and the spot trading atmosphere improved, but it is too early for the market to reverse. From what I know in the market, the market sentiment is still pessimistic. It is generally believed that there is still room for decline. The price of welded pipe in Tianjin-Hebei region is mainly stable. Towards the weekend, the upstream reaches the bottom again, and the price of welded and plated pipes continues to decline steadily. At present, the price of 4-inch welded pipes in Hebei Mainstream Pipe Plant is 4060-4340 yuan, which is about 200 yuan different from the price of 355mm series strips in the leading steel plant, except for the preferential policies of strip mills, bargaining space at the time of shipment of pipe mills and the transportation cost of raw materials from other places. Due to various factors, at present, the profit margin of the pipe factory is limited, and the inverted hanging situation is still prominent. The situation that the pipe factory replaces the strip steel with coiled sheets also occurs from time to time, especially in large specifications.

蘭格鋼鐵云商平臺監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至11月16日，唐山友發(fā)產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國標(biāo)焊管現(xiàn)金出廠價格為4110元，比上周同期下調(diào)120元；唐 山京華產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國標(biāo)焊管現(xiàn)金出廠價格為4060元，比上周同期下調(diào)140元；吉立(正大)產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國標(biāo)焊管現(xiàn)金出廠價格為 4120元，比上周同期下調(diào)80元。
According to the monitoring data of Langer Steel Cloud Merchant Platform, as of November 16, Tangshan Youfa's cash ex-factory price of 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipe was 4110 yuan, down 120 yuan from the same period last week; Tangshan Jinghua's cash ex-factory price of 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipe was 4060 yuan, down 140 yuan from the same period last week; Jili's (Zhengda) production of 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipe was 4 yuan. The cash price of GB welded pipe is 4120 yuan, which is 80 yuan lower than the same period last week.

市場方面
Market aspect

本周，下游各市場焊管報價不斷跟隨下跌，幅度從50-100元不等。目前貿(mào)易商操作情緒較低，普遍出貨為主且對后市仍不看好。庫存方面，進入11 月中旬，各地需求逐漸萎縮，商家普遍采取去庫存操作，各地庫存不斷下降。尤其東北地區(qū)，目前也進入了冰凍期，室外工程均已收尾，用管需求已降至全年最低。 其他地區(qū)也表現(xiàn)平平，市場信心偏弱。
This week, the prices of welded pipes in downstream markets continued to decline, ranging from 50-100 yuan. At present, traders are low in mood and generally in shipments and are still not optimistic about the market outlook. In terms of inventory, in mid-November, demand in various places has gradually shrunk. Businessmen generally take the de-inventory operation, and inventory in various places has been declining. Especially in Northeast China, it has entered a freezing period, outdoor projects have been completed, and the demand for pipes has dropped to the lowest level in the whole year. Other regions are also mediocre, with weak market confidence.

總的來看，今年環(huán)保力度明顯低于去年同期，環(huán)保限產(chǎn)對鋼價支撐有限，而進入11月份以來，終端需求不斷下滑，市場信心持續(xù)偏弱，對價格形成打壓。 經(jīng)過前期的大幅下跌，風(fēng)險已快速釋放，后期再次大跌的空間有限，但目前宏觀經(jīng)濟下行壓力下預(yù)期降低，短期或仍持續(xù)弱勢，下周國內(nèi)焊管價格或弱勢震蕩為主。
Overall, this year's environmental protection efforts are significantly lower than the same period last year. Environmental production restrictions have limited support for steel prices. Since November, terminal demand has been declining, market confidence has continued to be weak, which has depressed prices. After a sharp fall in the early period, the risk has been released rapidly, and the space for further fall is limited. However, under the current downward pressure of macro-economy, the expected decline is expected, and the short-term or continued weakness is still maintained. Next week, domestic welded pipe prices or weak shocks are dominant.