春節(jié)過(guò)后鋼價(jià)料再現(xiàn)階段性上漲行情

歷史數(shù)據(jù)顯示，鋼價(jià)常常在春節(jié)后一段時(shí)期內(nèi)出現(xiàn)階段性上漲行情。分析人士指出，從當(dāng)前鋼材市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存情況及供需情況來(lái)看，今年春節(jié)后鋼材市場(chǎng)大概率重演多頭行情�！坝绊懚瑑�(chǔ)后鋼價(jià)走勢(shì)的核心因素是冬儲(chǔ)量與節(jié)后需求的匹配程度�！敝行抛C券分析師敖?分析，冬儲(chǔ)是階段性供需錯(cuò)配的體現(xiàn)，背后是貿(mào)易商與鋼廠的博弈。冬儲(chǔ)發(fā)生的核心因素是春節(jié)導(dǎo)致需求斷崖式下跌，每年2月鋼材消費(fèi)量平均是鋼材產(chǎn)量的 61%。冬儲(chǔ)期間庫(kù)存大量累積集中于春節(jié)前后共計(jì)6周時(shí)間，平均占據(jù)整個(gè)累庫(kù)總量的84%。從主要參與對(duì)象看，冬儲(chǔ)是鋼廠向貿(mào)易商轉(zhuǎn)嫁風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的過(guò)程，其表現(xiàn) 一是冬儲(chǔ)期間鋼廠庫(kù)存比例明顯降低，二是廠庫(kù)大幅累積時(shí)間比社會(huì)庫(kù)存少4周。
Historical data show that steel prices often rise in stages after the Spring Festival. Analysts pointed out that from the current steel market inventory and supply and demand situation, the steel market after this Spring Festival is likely to repeat the bullish market. "The key factor affecting the trend of steel price after winter storage is the matching degree between winter reserves and post-season demand." Ao? Analyst of CITIC Securities, Winter Savings is the manifestation of staggered mismatch between supply and demand, behind which is the game between traders and steel mills. The core factor of winter storage is the cliff-like decline in demand caused by the Spring Festival, with steel consumption averaging 61% of steel output in February each year. During the winter storage period, a large number of stocks accumulated around the Spring Festival for a total of six weeks, accounting for an average of 84% of the total stockpile. From the perspective of the main participants, winter storage is a process of transferring risks from steel mills to traders. The first is that the proportion of steel mills'inventory is significantly reduced during winter storage, and the second is that the accumulated time of steel mills' warehouses is 4 weeks shorter than that of social stocks. “本輪冬儲(chǔ)階段的特征是高產(chǎn)量與低庫(kù)存并行，預(yù)計(jì)本輪冬儲(chǔ)庫(kù)存中樞有望下降至2016年與2017年的高點(diǎn)之間，春節(jié)后需求整體有望維持韌性，鋼價(jià)料將偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行。”他說(shuō)。
"The characteristics of this round of winter storage stage are high production and low inventory. It is expected that this round of winter storage storage center will decline to the high point between 2016 and 2017. After the Spring Festival, the overall demand is expected to maintain toughness, and steel prices will be strong operation." He said.

“節(jié)后庫(kù)存將小幅低于2018年同期。預(yù)計(jì)春節(jié)后首周庫(kù)存將同比下降3.2%，期間庫(kù)存增幅864萬(wàn)噸，冬儲(chǔ)規(guī)模并不小�！鄙耆f(wàn)宏源證券鋼鐵行業(yè)分析師姚洋分析，首先，春節(jié)前，由于不少前期檢修的高爐復(fù)產(chǎn)，而新增檢修高爐較少，因此長(zhǎng)流程鋼廠產(chǎn)量穩(wěn)中有增。減產(chǎn)則主要來(lái)自于短流程鋼廠，主要由于春節(jié) 放假停產(chǎn)和虧損主動(dòng)減產(chǎn)。預(yù)計(jì)春節(jié)期間兩周平均周產(chǎn)量為950萬(wàn)噸。其次，2018年12月以來(lái)，建材終端采購(gòu)超預(yù)期，同比上升8.5%，這與地產(chǎn)高周轉(zhuǎn) 策略和節(jié)前趕工有關(guān)。預(yù)計(jì)今年春節(jié)期間兩周平均終端采購(gòu)量為582萬(wàn)噸，與過(guò)去兩年相當(dāng)。
"Post-holiday inventory will be slightly lower than the same period in 2018. Inventory is expected to decrease by 3.2% in the first week after the Spring Festival. Inventory will increase by 8.64 million tons during the period, and the scale of winter storage is not small. Yao Yang, an analyst of Shenwanhongyuan Securities Steel Industry, analyzed that, first of all, before the Spring Festival, the output of the long process steel plant increased steadily due to the re-production of many blast furnaces which had been repaired earlier and fewer new ones. Production reduction mainly comes from short-process steel mills, mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday shutdown and loss initiative to reduce production. The average weekly output during the Spring Festival period is estimated to be 9.5 million tons. Secondly, since December 2018, terminal procurement of building materials has exceeded expectations, rising by 8.5% year-on-year, which is related to the high turnover strategy of real estate and pre-holiday rush. It is estimated that the average terminal purchasing volume will be 5.82 million tons in the two weeks during the Spring Festival this year, which is comparable to that in the past two years.

大概率出現(xiàn)“開門紅”
Probably there will be a "red start"

春節(jié)后鋼價(jià)大概率迎來(lái)“開門紅”�！皻v史數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2009年以來(lái)的10年中，春節(jié)后首周鋼價(jià)較節(jié)前都有不同程度上漲，漲價(jià)幅度和時(shí)間長(zhǎng)度不定，但與節(jié)后首周庫(kù)存高低沒有必然聯(lián)系。”姚洋表示，供需強(qiáng)弱影響鋼價(jià)走勢(shì)。
After the Spring Festival, steel prices are likely to be "red-blooded". "Historical data show that in the 10 years since 2009, steel prices in the first week after the Spring Festival have increased to varying degrees compared with those before the festival. The range and length of the increase are uncertain, but they are not necessarily related to the stock level in the first week after the festival." Yao Yang said that the strength of supply and demand affects the trend of steel prices.

敖?表示，通過(guò)對(duì)2016年-2018年冬儲(chǔ)前后鋼價(jià)走勢(shì)進(jìn)行分析，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，2016年與2017年冬儲(chǔ)之后鋼價(jià)分別上漲23%與19%， 原因在于冬儲(chǔ)期間低噸鋼毛利導(dǎo)致低產(chǎn)量，且地產(chǎn)與基建在節(jié)后都處于上行投資周期，需求強(qiáng)。2018年冬儲(chǔ)之后鋼價(jià)下跌15%，原因在于冬儲(chǔ)期間高產(chǎn)量疊加 較高的冬儲(chǔ)情緒，庫(kù)存累積量較大，節(jié)后復(fù)工滯后，大量庫(kù)存導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易商產(chǎn)生恐慌性拋盤。
Ao? Said that through the analysis of the trend of steel prices before and after the 2016-2018 winter storage, it can be found that the steel prices rose by 23% and 19% respectively after the 2016 and 2017 winter storage. The reason is that the gross profit of low-ton steel during the winter storage period leads to low production, and the real estate and infrastructure are in an upward investment cycle after the festival, and the demand is strong. After the winter storage in 2018, steel prices fell by 15%. The reason is that during the winter storage period, high production and high storage mood, large stock accumulation, lagging recovery after the festival, a large number of inventories led to panic selling by traders.

他表示：“根據(jù)我們的模型，測(cè)算節(jié)后庫(kù)存高點(diǎn)為2011萬(wàn)噸，介于2016年與2017年之間。在基建投資回升的情況下，需求韌性將延續(xù)到今 年上半年，預(yù)計(jì)3月庫(kù)存去化速率將達(dá)到43.5萬(wàn)噸/周，顯著快于2018年同期，與2017年同期的去化速度相當(dāng)。在冬儲(chǔ)庫(kù)存總量較低而去化速度較快的 情況下，鋼價(jià)有望繼續(xù)上漲�！�
According to our model, the post-holiday inventory peak is estimated to be 2.11 million tons, which is between 2016 and 2017. With the rebound of infrastructure investment, demand resilience will continue until the first half of this year. It is expected that the rate of inventory decomposition will reach 435,000 tons/week in March, which is significantly faster than the same period in 2018 and the same as the same period in 2017. The steel price is expected to continue to rise in the case of lower total winter storage stocks and faster depletion.

姚洋則認(rèn)為，節(jié)后鋼價(jià)將出現(xiàn)階段性反彈，但4月后面臨向下壓力�！凹僭O(shè)春節(jié)后采暖季限產(chǎn)結(jié)束，周產(chǎn)量在4月恢復(fù)到1010萬(wàn)噸的峰值，同時(shí)考 慮到地產(chǎn)新開工韌性較強(qiáng)，預(yù)計(jì)3-6月合計(jì)采購(gòu)水平較去年同期增長(zhǎng)1.2%，則庫(kù)存同比增速將在4月初出現(xiàn)回升，屆時(shí)鋼價(jià)將面臨向下壓力。”
Yao Yang believes that steel prices will rebound at this stage after the festival, but will face downward pressure after April. "Assuming that after the end of the heating season after the Spring Festival, the weekly output will return to the peak of 10.1 million tons in April, and considering the toughness of the new construction of real estate, it is expected that the total purchasing level in March-June will increase by 1.2% compared with the same period last year, then the inventory growth rate will rebound in early April, when steel prices will face downward pressure."