在期貨市場(chǎng)沖高回落后鋼市行情走向如何？

今日開盤，國(guó)內(nèi)黑色系一改昨日強(qiáng)勢(shì)上攻的態(tài)勢(shì)，除焦煤期貨主力合約繼續(xù)飄紅，其它品種齊刷刷掉頭向下調(diào)整。與此同時(shí)，現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)漲幅明顯收窄，表現(xiàn)敏感的鋼坯及帶鋼價(jià)格止?jié)q回落。雖然“淡水河谷礦山事件”在節(jié)后持續(xù)發(fā)酵并達(dá)到階段性高潮，但市場(chǎng)被過度激發(fā)過后，持續(xù)性動(dòng)力正在呈現(xiàn)衰減的信號(hào)，由此引發(fā)的成本支撐利好經(jīng)過春節(jié)前后的拔高以及消化也在減弱。
Today's opening, the domestic black department changed from yesterday's strong upward trend, except coking coal futures main contract continues to flush red, other varieties brush around and adjust downward. At the same time, the spot market has narrowed down significantly, and the price of billet and strip, which are sensitive to performance, has stopped rising and fallen. Although the "Valley Mine Event" continued to ferment after the festival and reached a stage climax, after the market was over-stimulated, the sustained power is showing a signal of attenuation, resulting in the cost support benefits after the Spring Festival and digestion are also weakening. 首先，表現(xiàn)在長(zhǎng)袖善舞的資本市場(chǎng)方面，多頭開始獲利快跑，這一信號(hào)在昨晚夜盤已經(jīng)開始顯現(xiàn)。另外，從技術(shù)面來看期貨市場(chǎng)在大幅拉升之后，在沒有后續(xù)的重大利好消息炒作以及基本面支撐的條件下，也存在回吐調(diào)整的訴求。
First of all, in the long-sleeved capital market, the Bulls began to make profits, and this signal began to appear last night. In addition, from a technical point of view, the futures market after a sharp rise, in the absence of follow-up major good news speculation and fundamentals support, there are also calls for adjustment.

從現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)來看，節(jié)后尚處在啟動(dòng)前的準(zhǔn)備階段。目前大部分商家仍未返市，下游施工企業(yè)也尚未大面積返工，因此雖然鋼廠價(jià)格以及商家報(bào)價(jià)在上漲，但整體市場(chǎng)成交表現(xiàn)卻較為冷清。雖然個(gè)別地區(qū)昨日存在節(jié)后補(bǔ)貨的情況，但多以按需求采購(gòu)為主，市場(chǎng)的真正啟動(dòng)仍需耐心等待。
From the spot market point of view, after the festival is still in the preparatory stage before the start. At present, most businessmen have not returned to the market, and downstream construction enterprises have not yet returned to work on a large scale. Therefore, although the prices of steel mills and quotations of businessmen are rising, the overall market performance is relatively cold. Although there were replenishments after the festival in some areas yesterday, most of them were purchased on demand, and the real start of the market still needs to be patiently awaited.

那么，在期貨市場(chǎng)沖高回落后鋼市行情走向如何？
So, what is the trend of the steel market after the futures market surges back to backwardness?

筆者認(rèn)為，后期市場(chǎng)將更多的回歸到基本面，節(jié)后市場(chǎng)累庫(kù)情況、終端需求啟動(dòng)速度等等是決定價(jià)格起落的主要因素。
The author believes that the market will return to the basic level in the later period. After the festival, the accumulation of the market, the starting speed of terminal demand and so on are the main factors that determine the price fluctuation.

在節(jié)前冬儲(chǔ)意愿不高的情況下，主動(dòng)大面積囤貨的不多。同時(shí)，節(jié)假日期間鋼廠開工率穩(wěn)中略有下降，累庫(kù)情況與去年基本相當(dāng)，部分地區(qū)甚至略低于去年，但檢修的鋼廠多集中于短流程的企業(yè)，長(zhǎng)流程的鋼廠基本保持正常生產(chǎn)，隨著節(jié)后高爐開工率的回升，整體庫(kù)存仍有上升空間。
In the case of low willingness to store in the winter before the festival, there is not much active large-scale stockpiling. At the same time, during the holidays, the start-up rate of steel mills declined slightly, and the accumulative storage situation was basically the same as last year. Some areas were even slightly lower than last year. However, most of the steel mills overhauled were concentrated in short-process enterprises, while the long-process steel mills basically maintained normal production. With the rebound of blast furnace start-up rate after the holidays, the overall stock still had room to rise.

消息面上，中美貿(mào)易談判將于本周2月14-15日在京進(jìn)行，談判進(jìn)展對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響不可忽視。
On the news side, the Sino-US trade negotiations will be held in Beijing from February 14 to 15 this week. The impact of the progress of the negotiations on the market can not be ignored.

總體來看，雖然開門紅過后市場(chǎng)存在調(diào)整的需求，空間或相對(duì)有限。
Overall, although there is a need to adjust after the opening of the market, the space is relatively limited.

價(jià)格方面，據(jù)監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今日，國(guó)內(nèi)重點(diǎn)城市Ф25mm三級(jí)螺紋鋼平均價(jià)格3956元(噸價(jià)，下同)，較昨日漲22元；國(guó)內(nèi)重點(diǎn)城市Ф6.5mm高線平均價(jià)格為4150元，較昨日漲22元；國(guó)內(nèi)重點(diǎn)城市5.5mm熱軋卷板平均價(jià)格為3858元，較昨日漲34元；國(guó)內(nèi)重點(diǎn)中心城市1.0mm冷板的平均價(jià)格為4340元，較昨日漲25元；國(guó)內(nèi)重點(diǎn)城市20mm中板平均價(jià)格3965元，較昨日漲27元。
In terms of price, according to monitoring data, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in key cities in China today is 3956 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 22 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 6.5mm high-speed line in key cities in China is 4150 yuan, up 22 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil plate in key cities in China is 3858 yuan, up 34 yuan from yesterday; and the average price of 1.0mm cold plate in key cities in China is 34 yuan higher than yesterday. The price is 4340 yuan, up 25 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 20mm medium plate in key cities in China is 3965 yuan, up 27 yuan from yesterday.

原料方面，今日，唐山地區(qū)昌黎150*150普碳方坯3480元，較昨日跌40；京唐港61.5%品位澳大利亞PB鐵礦粉價(jià)格為677元，較昨日漲12元；唐山地區(qū)準(zhǔn)一級(jí)冶金焦含稅到廠價(jià)格2050元，較昨日持平。
In terms of raw materials, today, Changli 150*150 carbon square billet in Tangshan area is 3480 yuan, 40 yuan lower than yesterday; Beijing-Tanggang 61.5% grade Australian PB iron ore powder price is 677 yuan, 12 yuan higher than yesterday; Tangshan quasi-primary metallurgical coke with tax to plant price is 2050 yuan, which is flat compared with yesterday.