方管節(jié)后是閃崩？還是一路長(zhǎng)紅？

節(jié)中鐵礦暴漲，節(jié)后方管期貨高開(kāi)后便一路下跌，跌至3600上下時(shí)候回漲，到這個(gè)節(jié)點(diǎn)，漲跌觀點(diǎn)都有，利空利多消息頻出，上看4000下看3000的各路大神各有說(shuō)辭，今天列舉下目前的多空形式，讓大家自己有個(gè)判斷。首先，我們從原料端著手，因?yàn)樵�料端的突發(fā)事件導(dǎo)致了黑色系的急漲急跌，首先焦煤焦炭方面，各個(gè)地區(qū)的安全檢查普遍展開(kāi)，很多煤礦停產(chǎn)整頓，這個(gè)力度在兩會(huì)前想來(lái)不會(huì)放松，另外一個(gè)是巴西淡水河谷的礦山潰壩導(dǎo)致整個(gè)鐵礦石年度產(chǎn)出受到影響，這兩個(gè)因素直接推升了方管的成本，對(duì)于鋼價(jià)產(chǎn)生支撐，也是上漲推動(dòng)的主力軍。
Festival iron ore soars, steel futures after the festival all the way down, down to about 3600 when the rally, to this node, the rise and fall point of view, the bullish news, look at 4000 see 3000 gods have their own words, today listed the current bullish form, let you have a judgment. First of all, we start from the raw material side, because the emergencies at the raw material side led to the sharp rise and fall of the black system. First of all, in the area of coking coal and coke, safety inspections are generally carried out in various regions, and many coal mines have been shut down and rectified. This effort will not be relaxed before the two sessions. The other is that the dam break in the Vale of Brazil has affected the annual output of iron ore. The factors directly push up the cost of steel, support the price of steel, and are also the main force pushed by the rise. 說(shuō)完原料端，我們?cè)傺芯肯路焦鼙旧淼墓┬�，先講一下方管利多，首先央行資金釋放寬松，對(duì)于市場(chǎng)資金流動(dòng)有一定的利好，一季度需求預(yù)期向好，中美談判利好制造業(yè)出口，提振方管需求，地方因?yàn)榄h(huán)保區(qū)域性限產(chǎn)仍在進(jìn)行。
On the raw material side, we will study the supply and demand of steel itself. First of all, we will talk about steel profitability. First, the release of central bank funds is loose, which is good for market capital flow. First quarter demand expectations are good. Sino-US negotiations are good for manufacturing exports and boost steel demand. Local environmental protection regional production restrictions are still under way.

說(shuō)完利好，再理一下利空，目前方管最大的利空在于庫(kù)存，和去年一樣，今年開(kāi)年方管庫(kù)存累積很快，且目前在鋼廠開(kāi)工率恢復(fù)后，需求端并未得到釋放，導(dǎo)致庫(kù)存激增，從今日鋼聯(lián)庫(kù)存以及和往年庫(kù)存對(duì)比中我們可以看出，目前還是有一定庫(kù)存壓力的。
Speaking of the good, take a second look at the bad news, the biggest shortfall of steel is inventory. As in last year, steel inventory accumulated very quickly in the beginning of this year, and the demand side has not been released after the start-up rate of steel mills recovered, resulting in a sharp increase in inventory. From today's inventory and inventory comparison with previous years, we can see that there is still a certain inventory pressure.

另外天氣對(duì)于需求端釋放也有一定的影響，在北方天氣嚴(yán)寒，工地難以全部開(kāi)工之際，南方大部分地區(qū)迎來(lái)持續(xù)的陰雨 天氣，預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)至三月上旬，工地開(kāi)工遇阻，需求難以最大釋放，這個(gè)可能成為后期左右方管價(jià)格的重要因素。
In addition, the weather also has a certain impact on demand-side release. When the northern weather is very cold and the construction site is difficult to start all, most areas in the south are facing a continuous rainy and rainy weather, which is expected to last until early March. The construction site is blocked and the demand is difficult to release to the maximum. This may become an important factor affecting steel prices in the later period.

目前來(lái)說(shuō)，中美談判的預(yù)期利好已然釋放，央行放水預(yù)期的年后需求利好仍在釋放，雖然目前庫(kù)存較高，多頭仍對(duì)后期需求感到樂(lè)觀，認(rèn)為一旦需求啟動(dòng)，庫(kù)存將在短時(shí)間急劇下降，且原材料堅(jiān)挺，空頭則認(rèn)為一旦需求釋放不足，在鋼廠全力開(kāi)工下，庫(kù)存將激增，而價(jià)格則堅(jiān)挺不了 多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間至于原材料所謂的供給影響只是短期的，實(shí)際影響被夸大。
At present, the expected benefits of Sino-US negotiations have been released, and the expected demand of the central bank is still releasing after the year of releasing water. Although stocks are high at present, bulls are optimistic about the later demand. They believe that once demand starts, stocks will drop sharply in a short time, and raw materials are firm. Short-holders believe that once demand is released insufficiently, stocks will increase sharply with the full start of steel mills. The price will not last long. As for raw materials, the so-called supply impact is only short-term, and the actual impact is exaggerated.

技術(shù)面來(lái)說(shuō)，目前屬于震蕩偏強(qiáng)走勢(shì)，假如需求預(yù)期繼續(xù)炒作，還是有可能更進(jìn)一步，但是需要關(guān)注預(yù)期和現(xiàn)實(shí)需求的轉(zhuǎn)化情況，現(xiàn)在到三月初是重要的時(shí)間段。
Technically speaking, it is a strong trend of shocks. If demand expectations continue to speculate, it is still possible to go further. However, we need to pay attention to the transformation of expectations and actual demand. Now it is an important period of time until early March.