若短期內(nèi)需求拉不起來方管企業(yè)承受的壓力將越來越大

春節(jié)過后，南方出現(xiàn)綿長的陰雨天氣，延緩了終端需求啟動進程，令鋼貿(mào)商們心情也是一片霧蒙蒙的。據(jù)國內(nèi)知名方管現(xiàn)貨交易平臺——西本新干線最新報告，面對高爐開工率小幅回升，以及鋼市成交相對冷清，鋼市庫存正在快速累積，現(xiàn)已超過2017年春節(jié)后高位，并向2018年春節(jié)后高位靠攏。眼看正月十五過后，多地將進入開工季，不少鋼貿(mào)商卻對后市不敢過于樂觀。
After the Spring Festival, there was a long rainy weather in the south, which delayed the start-up process of terminal demand, and made steel traders feel misty. According to the latest report of Xiben Shinkansen, a well-known local management spot trading platform in China, steel stock is accumulating rapidly in the face of a small rebound in blast furnace start-up rate and relatively cold trading in the steel market, which has exceeded the post-Spring Festival high in 2017 and is close to the post-Spring Festival high in 2018. After the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, many steel traders are not too optimistic about the future market. 隨著手機鏡頭的轉(zhuǎn)動，滿目都是盤螺、螺紋等鋼材庫存。來自寧波、邯鄲等地的鋼貿(mào)商們用視頻直觀地展現(xiàn)了當下的庫存情況。
With the mobile phone lens turning, all eyes are screw, screw and other steel stocks. Steel traders from Ningbo, Handan and other places show the current inventory situation intuitively with video.

一位鋼貿(mào)企業(yè)負責人對上證報記者表示，現(xiàn)在業(yè)內(nèi)最關(guān)注的莫過于南方地區(qū)的天氣情況。如果陰雨天氣還將持續(xù)，加上北方出現(xiàn)大面積嚴重霧霾天氣，若短期內(nèi)需求拉不起來，方管企業(yè)承受的壓力將越來越大。
A person in charge of a steel trade enterprise told the Shanghai Stock Exchange newspaper that the weather situation in the southern region is the most concerned in the industry. If the rainy and rainy weather will continue, coupled with a large area of severe fog and haze weather in the north, if the short-term demand can not pull up, the steel trade enterprises will be under increasing pressure.

根據(jù)申萬宏源方管團隊近期對有關(guān)鋼貿(mào)商調(diào)研顯示，南京的一家受訪鋼貿(mào)企業(yè)的庫存水平在50%左右。相關(guān)負責人認為，今年鋼材需求釋放比去年看起來更晚一些。加上大范圍陰雨天氣，貿(mào)易商態(tài)度都比較謹慎。廣東的鋼貿(mào)企業(yè)在庫存累積方面更為謹慎，但相關(guān)負責人認為廣東地區(qū)基建項目對于鋼材的需求拉動較大，對于后期市場需求并不悲觀。
According to a recent survey of steel trade by Shen Wanhongyuan's party management team, the inventory level of a steel trade enterprise in Nanjing is about 50%. Relevant officials believe that this year's steel demand release looks later than last year. In addition to extensive rainy and rainy weather, traders are more cautious. Guangdong's steel trading enterprises are more cautious about stock accumulation, but the relevant responsible persons believe that the demand for steel for infrastructure projects in Guangdong area is greater, and the market demand for later period is not pessimistic.

通過與方管業(yè)內(nèi)人士交流，記者還發(fā)現(xiàn)目前無論鋼廠、貿(mào)易商還是下游需求方都越來越關(guān)注期貨市場的表現(xiàn)。若黑色系期貨上漲，采購將明顯變得積極，鋼貿(mào)商也會快速恢復信心。
Through exchanges with local managers, the reporter also found that both steel mills, traders and downstream demanders are paying more and more attention to the performance of the futures market. If black futures rise, purchasing will obviously become positive, and steel traders will quickly regain confidence.

西本新干線研究員對記者表示，從全國庫存統(tǒng)計來看，截至2月22日，全國主要城市螺紋鋼庫存周環(huán)比增加126.34萬噸，線材庫存周環(huán)比上漲33.25萬噸；全國主要鋼廠庫存周環(huán)比增加10.86萬噸，線材庫存周環(huán)比增加1.75萬噸。下游需求啟動緩慢，新資源陸續(xù)到貨，螺紋鋼庫存延續(xù)大幅增加。下周南方大部仍有雨水天氣，庫存高位對鋼價存在抑制作用，但終端需求畢竟在緩慢恢復，對下周市場維持偏中性評價。
According to the national inventory statistics, as of February 22, the inventory of threaded steel in major cities increased by 12.634 million tons, wire stock increased by 332.5 million tons, and the inventory of major steel mills increased by 108.6 million tons and wire stock increased by 17.5 million tons. Downstream demand started slowly, new resources came in succession, threaded steel inventory continued to increase substantially. Most of the southern region will still have rainy weather next week, and the high stock level will restrain steel prices, but after all, the terminal demand is slowly recovering, and the market will maintain a neutral evaluation next week.