二月份國(guó)內(nèi)方管價(jià)格探漲后趨穩(wěn)消化庫(kù)存為主

2月份，國(guó)內(nèi)方管市開(kāi)市便毫不猶豫喜迎“開(kāi)門(mén)紅”，方管市場(chǎng)由管坯、管廠(chǎng)到市場(chǎng)漸次傳遞。本波上漲潮，管坯價(jià)格上調(diào)100元左右，管廠(chǎng)上調(diào)50-100元，主導(dǎo)地區(qū)多上漲50元，個(gè)別地區(qū)漲100元，其中上海、無(wú)錫、天津、北京、滄州等地區(qū)中等熱軋管報(bào)價(jià)在4700-4800元之間。另，河南鳳寶、匯豐自節(jié)后上調(diào)方管出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格100-150元，尤其對(duì)于219-325系列價(jià)格有帶動(dòng)作用，煙寶、魯寶上調(diào)3月份方管價(jià)格200元，亦對(duì)大口徑管的“常穩(wěn)將軍”進(jìn)一步助力。不過(guò)本輪上漲勢(shì)頭來(lái)的快走的也快，市場(chǎng)回歸供需基本面。其中，巴西尾礦事故影響低于預(yù)期，鐵礦石應(yīng)聲而下，國(guó)內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨鋼市進(jìn)入震蕩下行趨勢(shì)。然后，終端需求啟動(dòng)還待時(shí)日，鋼廠(chǎng)及社會(huì)庫(kù)存攀升，尤其節(jié)前囤貨商家隨著價(jià)格下行而急于讓利套現(xiàn)，偶有鋼廠(chǎng)試探性上調(diào)出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格，期貨持續(xù)上行，但現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)主要操作仍是多出貨為主。而方管廠(chǎng)基本保持平，尤其隨著開(kāi)工率上升，庫(kù)存帶來(lái)壓力，管坯和方坯價(jià)差600元左右，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加劇，均制約方管市場(chǎng)價(jià)格拉漲，消化庫(kù)存為主。整個(gè)2月份，方管市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)多處于漲跌兩難的膠著狀態(tài)而顯得漫長(zhǎng)，不過(guò)底部?jī)r(jià)格得以夯實(shí)。
In February, when the domestic steel market opened, it did not hesitate to welcome the "red door", and the square tube market was gradually transferred from billet and factory to market. In the current upsurge, the price of pipe blanks has been raised by about 100 yuan, pipe mills by 50-100 yuan, leading areas by more than 50 yuan, and individual areas by 100 yuan, including Shanghai, Wuxi, Tianjin, Beijing, Cangzhou and other areas of medium-sized hot-rolled pipes quoted between 4700-4800 yuan. In addition, Henan Fengbao and HSBC have raised the ex-factory price of square tubes by 100-150 yuan since the restraint, especially for 219-325 series. Yanbao and Lubao have raised the price of square tubes by 200 yuan in March, which is also helpful to the "General Chang Wen" of large-caliber tubes. However, this round of rising momentum is also fast moving, the market returns to the supply and demand fundamentals. Among them, the impact of Brazilian tailings accident is lower than expected, iron ore came down, domestic spot steel market entered a downward trend of shock. Then, the terminal demand is still waiting for time to start, steel mills and social stocks are rising, especially the pre-season hoarders are eager to cash in with the price down, occasionally steel mills tentatively raise the ex-factory price, futures continue to rise, but the main operation of the spot market is still more shipments. However, square pipe factories are basically flat. Especially with the increase of start-up rate, stock pressure, the price difference between billet and billet is about 600 yuan, and the risk is increasing. All these restrict the price of square pipe market to rise, and digest inventory mainly. Throughout February, the market tended to stick to the dilemma of rising and falling, but the bottom price was consolidated. 據(jù)監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至2月28日，全國(guó)重點(diǎn)城市108*4.5mm均價(jià)5028元，比上月同期上漲28元。
According to monitoring data, as of February 28, the average price of 108*4.5mm in key cities in China was 5028 yuan, up 28 yuan from the same period last month.

二、管坯、方坯價(jià)差大
2. Big price difference between tube billet and square billet

2月底，唐山方坯報(bào)價(jià)3480元，山東魯麗、江鑫鋼廠(chǎng)出廠(chǎng)價(jià)格分別4000元、4050元。方坯和管坯價(jià)差擴(kuò)至520-570元，而2月中旬兩者價(jià)差達(dá)600余噸，遠(yuǎn)超合理價(jià)差250元。月底管坯鋼廠(chǎng)年前訂單基本發(fā)完，年后無(wú)協(xié)議鋼廠(chǎng)訂單多是零散訂單為主，鋼廠(chǎng)面臨新訂單壓力。不過(guò)鑒于年前管廠(chǎng)囤貨不多，多數(shù)是15天左右，長(zhǎng)者達(dá)一月，而隨著管廠(chǎng)開(kāi)工率攀升，管坯消化加入加速階段，采購(gòu)管坯無(wú)疑會(huì)同步上升。
At the end of February, Tangshan billet quoted 3480 yuan, while Shandong Luli and Jiangxin Steel Co., Ltd. ex-factory prices were 4000 yuan and 4050 yuan respectively. The price difference between square billet and tube billet increased to 520-570 yuan, while in mid-February the price difference between the two reached more than 600 tons, far exceeding the reasonable price difference of 250 yuan. At the end of this month, orders for billet mills were basically completed before the end of the year, and for non-agreement mills after the end of the year, orders for billet mills were mostly scattered orders, and steel mills were facing new orders pressure. However, in view of the fact that there were not many stockpiles in the previous year, most of them lasted for about 15 days, and the elderly lasted for one month. With the increase of the start-up rate of the pipe plant, the digestion of the billets and the acceleration of the process, the purchase of billets will undoubtedly rise simultaneously.