本周杭州方管市場價格大幅下跌需求支撐減弱

本周杭州方管市場價格大幅下跌，周期螺先抑后揚，周初期螺下行，市場心態(tài)悲觀，成交較差，現(xiàn)貨價格下行，周三開始期螺有所回暖，但由于目前市場價格與方管廠出廠價出現(xiàn)倒掛現(xiàn)象， 貿(mào)易商為了減少虧損，積極拉漲，但漲價后成交不佳，市場心態(tài)依舊沒有恢復，價格難以大幅上漲。因為經(jīng)濟下行壓力較大，決策部門相繼出臺系列穩(wěn)增長舉措，尤 其是推動基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)方面，使得在建和新建項目施工情況好于上年。

This week, Hangzhou square pipe market prices fell sharply, cyclical snails first restrained and then rose. At the beginning of the week, snails fell down, market mentality was pessimistic, trading was poor, spot prices fell, and snails began to warm up at the beginning of Wednesday. However, due to the inverted phenomenon between current market prices and steel mill ex-factory prices, traders actively pulled up in order to reduce losses, but after the price increase, the market mentality still did not recover. It is difficult for prices to rise substantially. Because of the great downward pressure of the economy, the decision-making departments have introduced a series of steady growth measures, especially in promoting infrastructure construction, which makes the construction situation of construction and new construction projects better than last year. 從宏觀數(shù)據(jù)層面看，環(huán)保方面各地限產(chǎn)在逐步趨嚴或正在落實的傾向，唐山新增高爐達到8座。但是有些地方仍然存在一些重要任務沒有整改到位，在環(huán)保 力度不及預期的情況之下，對于鋼價產(chǎn)生了不利影響。后期要關(guān)注限產(chǎn)政策實施情況和力度。需求方面，隨著天氣的轉(zhuǎn)熱，淡季需求特點越來越明顯，下游采購明顯 減弱，較前段時間成交量有較大下滑，需求支撐減弱。

From the macro data point of view, in the aspect of environmental protection, the trend of production restriction is becoming stricter or being implemented, with 8 new blast furnaces added in Tangshan. But in some places, there are still some important tasks that have not been rectified. In the case of environmental protection is not as strong as expected, it has a negative impact on steel prices. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the implementation and strength of the policy. On the demand side, with the heat of the weather, off-season demand characteristics become more and more obvious, downstream purchasing has been significantly weakened, compared with the previous period, the volume of transactions has declined significantly, and demand support has been weakened.

原材料方面：截至發(fā)稿，17日午后唐山昌黎遷安鋼坯穩(wěn)，現(xiàn)普碳方坯含稅出廠3560，較上周同期漲30。

Raw materials: Up to the date of submission, the Tangshan Changli Qian'an billet was stable in the afternoon of 17th, and now the ordinary carbon billet with tax was discharged 3560, up 30% from the same period last week.

庫存方面：本周杭州方管庫存51.83萬噸：較前期整體庫存減少1.64萬噸：線材3.53萬噸，螺紋鋼48.3萬噸。

Inventory: Hangzhou square pipe inventory 518,300 tons this week: 16,400 tons less than the previous overall inventory: wire rod 35,300 tons, thread steel 483,000 tons.

價格方面：截至5月17日，杭州方管批量成交指導價格：沙鋼 Φ8-10mm高線為4330元,比上周同期降50，中天Φ12mm三級螺紋鋼為4230元，比上周同期降60，中天Φ25mm三級螺鋼為4070元，比 上周同期降60，永鋼Φ8-10mm三級盤螺為4320元，比上周同期降50。

Price: As of May 17, Hangzhou square pipe volume trading guidance price: Shagang 8-10mm high line is 4330 yuan, 50 yuan lower than last week's same period, Zhongtian 12mm three-stage screw steel is 4230 yuan, 60 yuan lower than last week's same period, Zhongtian_25mm three-stage screw steel is 4070 yuan, 60 yuan lower than last week's same period, Yonggang 8-10mm three-stage screw is 4320 yuan lower than last week's same period.

綜合來看綜上所述，由于噸鋼利潤可觀，鋼廠生產(chǎn)積極性依然較大。但隨著價格的走低，一些電爐有利空間壓縮明顯，總體應該還是會處于震蕩局面。短期 內(nèi)可能會出現(xiàn)下跌，有可能倒逼這部分鋼廠減量，后期需要重點關(guān)注市場情緒面、市場供需以及宏觀政策的影響，綜上所述，預計下周杭州方管市場價格或弱勢震蕩 運行。

In summary, due to the considerable profit per ton of steel, steel mills are still more enthusiastic about production. However, with the price going down, the favorable space of some electric furnaces is obviously compressed, and the overall situation should still be in a turbulent situation. In the short term, there may be a decline, which may force the reduction of this part of the steel mill. In the later period, we need to focus on the market sentiment, market supply and demand, and the impact of macro-policy. In summary, we expect that next week Hangzhou Fangguan market price or weak shock operation