監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示國內(nèi)方管價格波動不大

本周(1.25-2.1)，國內(nèi)方管價格波動不大，監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至2月1日，國內(nèi)十大重點(diǎn)城市4寸方管均價為4182元(噸 價，下同)，比上周同期方管價格持平。河北地區(qū)主導(dǎo)管廠及各地區(qū)貿(mào)易商放假安排基本在1.20-29日，價格調(diào)整意愿不強(qiáng)；但消息面和期貨卻不平靜。 鋼坯方面，上周五經(jīng)過短短的一出鎖價不久就解鎖的鬧劇后，價格定在3430元，據(jù)統(tǒng)計1日唐山主要倉庫鋼坯庫存約33.3萬噸，較上期(25日)增13.3 萬噸，增幅66.5%，較去年同期(2月13日臘月廿八)少50萬噸左右。另這次潰壩事件對期貨市場有一定帶動，但鋼坯現(xiàn)貨市場的影響基本已經(jīng)忽略不計， 其利潤相對并不高，故產(chǎn)量供給方面并不如去年，再加之價格明顯偏高。節(jié)后價格或先迎來一波小幅拉漲，而后或隨著供需錯配有下行風(fēng)險。
This week (1.25-2.1), the price of domestic square tubes fluctuates little. Monitoring data show that as of February 1, the average price of 4-inch square tubes in ten major cities in China is 4182 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is equal to the same price of square tubes in the same period last week. The holiday arrangements for leading management plants and traders in Hebei region are basically 1.20-29 days, and the price adjustment will not be strong, but the news and futures are not calm. As for billets, the price was set at 3,430 yuan after a short lock price was unlocked shortly last Friday. According to statistics, the stock of billets in Tangshan's main warehouse on the 1st day was about 333,000 tons, an increase of 66.5% over the previous period (25 days). It was about 500,000 tons less than the same period last year (28 December, 13 February). In addition, the dam-break event has a certain impact on the futures market, but the impact of the spot market of billets has been neglected. Its profit is relatively low, so the supply of production is not as high as last year, and the price is obviously high. After the festival, the price may rise slightly, and then the downside risk will be mismatched with the supply and demand. 帶鋼方面，截至今日唐山熱軋帶鋼(2.5*355mm)唐山瑞豐3650，較上周同期漲10元。基本維持周初漲后持穩(wěn)的態(tài)勢，歲末年終商家陸續(xù)退市放假，市場 成交寥寥，多數(shù)執(zhí)行前期鎖價政策，僅個別有出貨， 28日145mm系列窄帶廠家放假休市，后半周出貨不計，周內(nèi)單日平均出貨5700噸，較上周降500噸。無錫地區(qū)產(chǎn)能利用率較上周明顯降低，軋材企業(yè)全 部停產(chǎn)放假，僅剩3家全流程鋼廠以協(xié)議為主，當(dāng)?shù)刭Q(mào)易商庫存較上周增幅達(dá)60%以上，預(yù)計節(jié)后庫存仍將大幅增加，價格或?qū)⑿》�上調(diào)。
As for strip steel, Tangshan hot-rolled strip (2.5*355mm) Tangshan Ruifeng 3650, up 10 yuan from the same period last week. Maintaining the steady trend after the early week rise, the end of the year and the end of the year, businessmen have withdrawn from the market for holidays, market turnover is scarce, most of them implement the policy of early lock price, only a few shipments, on the 28th 145mm series of narrowband manufacturers leave the market, the latter half of the week does not count shipments, the average daily shipment within the week is 5700 tons, 500 tons lower than last week. The utilization ratio of production capacity in Wuxi area is significantly lower than last week. All rolling mills are shut down for holidays. Only three full-process steel mills are dominated by agreements. Inventories of local traders have increased by more than 60% compared with last week. Inventories are expected to increase substantially after the festival, and prices may rise slightly.

焊鍍管市場方面
Welded Pipe Market

本周，宏觀消息及期貨市場的刺激使原料鐵礦石整年走勢預(yù)測現(xiàn)重塑可能；蘭格鋼鐵網(wǎng)筆者孫明認(rèn)為實(shí)際的市場影響效力還需要一到兩個月的時間來考量，并將繼續(xù)關(guān) 注此事件的發(fā)展對我國巴西礦種的具體使用和需求的影響分析。而現(xiàn)貨市場由于25日前后籌備生產(chǎn)停工，本周銷售值班人員多安排協(xié)議走量，部分管廠冬儲資源前 移至北方市場及港口；節(jié)后開工暫定2.11-20日，原料及規(guī)格調(diào)整操作節(jié)奏安排在2月底前后。市場貿(mào)易商同樣陸續(xù)休市，個別正常運(yùn)營至臘月二十八九，安 排寥寥訂單及催收回款；節(jié)后大多農(nóng)歷初八至十一左右正式開工。從蘭格網(wǎng)調(diào)查的數(shù)據(jù)來看，本周(02.01)國內(nèi)方管庫存：據(jù)不完全統(tǒng)計22個城市庫存 26.84萬噸，較上周同期增0.55萬噸，增幅2.09%。
This week, macro news and futures market stimulus have made it possible to reshape the annual trend forecast of raw iron ore. Sun Ming, author of Langer Iron and Steel Network, believes that the actual market impact will take another month or two to consider, and will continue to pay attention to the impact of the development of this event on the specific use and demand of Brazilian minerals in China. In the spot market, due to the planned production shutdown around 25 days ago, the sales staff arranged more agreement volume this week, and some of the winter storage resources of the management plant moved forward to the northern market and port; after the festival, construction was tentatively scheduled for 2.11-20 days, and the rhythm of raw materials and specifications adjustment operation was scheduled around the end of February. Markets and traders are also closing down one after another. Individuals operate normally until December 289, arranging for a small number of orders and reminders; most of them start work around the eighth to eleventh day of the lunar calendar after the festival. According to the data from the Lange survey, this week (02.01) domestic domestic managed inventory: according to incomplete statistics, 22 cities have 268,400 tons of inventory, an increase of 0.55 million tons, an increase of 2.09% over the same period last week.

監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至2月1日，唐山友發(fā)產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國標(biāo)方管現(xiàn)金出廠價格為3880元；唐山京華產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國標(biāo)方管現(xiàn)金出廠價格為3900元；吉立(正大)產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國標(biāo)方管現(xiàn)金出廠價格為3910元。
Monitoring data show that as of February 1, Tangshan Youfa produced 4 inches (3.75) of new GBS cash at a factory price of 3880 yuan; Tangshan Jinghua produced 4 inches (3.75) of new GBS cash at a factory price of 3900 yuan; Jili (Zhengda) produced 4 inches (3.75) of new GBS cash at a factory price of 3930 yuan.

綜合來看，臨近春節(jié)，整體現(xiàn)貨市場操作意愿不強(qiáng)，而期貨市場在一定消息面的影響下，出現(xiàn)期現(xiàn)套期保值成交量回升；同時在原料成本利潤月比增長，產(chǎn)能利用率回 升，鋼坯需求量增長的前提下，價格實(shí)現(xiàn)托底，鋼管上下游春節(jié)期間政策多靈活控制；而節(jié)后一二季度的需求韌性，將大概率影響節(jié)后供需錯配階段的持續(xù)程度，價 格存在漲后探底預(yù)期。
Generally speaking, near the Spring Festival, the overall spot market operation will not be strong, while the futures market under the influence of certain information, the volume of futures hedging increased; at the same time, under the premise of the increase of raw material cost-profit ratio, productivity utilization ratio and billet demand, the price achieved the bottom, and the policy of upstream and downstream steel pipe during the Spring Festival was more flexible to control; Quarterly demand resilience will have a great probability to affect the sustainability of the post-season mismatch between supply and demand, and there is a expectation that prices will bottom out after rising.