利好扎堆黑色大反彈 需求釋放前看多不追多【轉(zhuǎn)摘】

今日開盤，黑色系除鐵礦石弱勢(shì)運(yùn)行，其它品種全線上漲。現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)價(jià)格小幅跟漲，鋼坯在經(jīng)過昨日回吐之后于今早再度反彈，成品材價(jià)格微幅上揚(yáng)。從成交情況來看，正月十五過后，市場(chǎng)需求正在恢復(fù)當(dāng)中，但施工企業(yè)仍未大面積返工，同時(shí)天氣因素影響，對(duì)施工和運(yùn)輸短期產(chǎn)生些一定影響，目前仍需耐心等待。不過，與前幾日相比，市場(chǎng)成交已有所好轉(zhuǎn)，尤其低位成交表現(xiàn)較好。
At the opening of today's market, the black line has risen in all varieties except for the weak operation of iron ore. Spot market prices rose slightly, billet rebounded again this morning after yesterday's rebound, finished product prices rose slightly. From the trading situation, after January 15, the market demand is recovering, but the construction enterprises have not yet returned to work on a large scale. At the same time, weather factors have some impact on the construction and transportation in the short term. At present, we still need to wait patiently. However, compared with the previous days, market turnover has improved, especially in low-end trading performance is better. 今日利好消息相對(duì)集中，一是，全球資金面趨向?qū)捤梢呀?jīng)逐漸成為事實(shí)。據(jù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)1月會(huì)議紀(jì)要顯示，幾乎所有官員希望今年宣布停止縮表計(jì)劃，且不確定 今年是否可能加息，被市場(chǎng)解讀為強(qiáng)烈的鴿派信號(hào)。市場(chǎng)信心得到提振，消息公布后，美股小幅收高，道指漲逾60點(diǎn)；芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品期貨 主力合約多數(shù)收漲，倫敦基本金屬集體上漲，利好大宗已反應(yīng)在盤面上。
Today's good news is relatively concentrated. First, the easing of global capital has gradually become a reality. According to the summary of the January meeting of the Federal Reserve, almost all officials hope to announce the end of the drawdown plan this year and are uncertain about the possibility of raising interest rates this year, which has been interpreted by the market as a strong dove signal. Market confidence was boosted. After the announcement, U.S. stocks closed slightly higher, with the Dow rising more than 60 points. Most of the major agricultural futures contracts on the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) closed higher, while London's basic metals rose collectively. The bull market has been reflected on the market.

對(duì)于國(guó)內(nèi)來說，最大利好莫過于貨幣政策外部掣肘明顯減弱，隨著資本外流壓力逐步降低，人民幣年內(nèi)企穩(wěn)無憂，為制定更加寬松的貨幣政策提供了空間和條件。同時(shí)，凡事都有AB面，需要看到另一面的是，相應(yīng)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的預(yù)期也正在上升。
For domestic, the greatest advantage is that the external constraints of monetary policy have been significantly weakened. With the gradual reduction of the pressure of capital outflow, the stability of the Renminbi in the year is secure, which provides space and conditions for the formulation of a more relaxed monetary policy. At the same time, everything has an AB side, we need to see the other side is that the corresponding global economic downturn expectations are also rising.

另外，中美貿(mào)易談判繼續(xù)向好發(fā)展。有傳中美兩國(guó)原則上已經(jīng)開始就貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端最棘手的議題草擬綱要以終結(jié)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，這是貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)開打七個(gè)月以來最大的進(jìn)展。目前中美雙方高級(jí)別磋商正在過行當(dāng)中，至于磋商具體進(jìn)展程度，要等到磋商結(jié)束后進(jìn)一步發(fā)布。
In addition, the Sino-US trade negotiations continue to develop well. It is rumored that China and the United States have in principle begun drafting an outline on the most difficult issues in trade disputes to end the trade war, which is the biggest progress in the seven months since the beginning of the trade war. At present, the high-level consultation between China and the United States is in progress. As for the specific progress of the consultation, it should be further released after the consultation.

二是來自于產(chǎn)業(yè)面的消息，澳大利亞煤礦事故停產(chǎn)，焦煤領(lǐng)漲。受天氣因素影響，河北、山西等地錯(cuò)峰生產(chǎn)。另外，最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，累庫(kù)繼續(xù)增加，但仍低于去年同期，市場(chǎng)心態(tài)相對(duì)略好。沙鋼等代表性鋼廠廠價(jià)上提。
Second, news from the industry, Australia coal mine accident shut down, coking coal led the rise. Influenced by weather factors, peak production is staggered in Hebei, Shanxi and other places. In addition, the latest data show that the accumulator continues to increase, but still lower than the same period last year, the market mentality is relatively good. Shagang and other representative steel mills have raised their prices.

總體來看，市場(chǎng)正在向好的預(yù)期發(fā)展，但具體走向仍要看需求的釋放進(jìn)度和力度，需求預(yù)期的兌現(xiàn)，才是真正的上漲的開啟，在需求未明顯啟動(dòng)之前多空仍將在糾結(jié)中前行。同時(shí)，消息面的影響還需要最終的確認(rèn)，因此短期內(nèi)看多不追多，逢低布局觀點(diǎn)暫時(shí)維持不變。
Generally speaking, the market is developing towards good expectations, but the specific direction still depends on the release progress and intensity of demand. The fulfillment of demand expectations is the real opening of the rise, and the long-run will still be in a tangle before the demand starts obviously. At the same time, the impact of the message side needs final confirmation, so in the short term, the outlook on the layout of the bullish market will remain unchanged for the time being.

價(jià)格方面，據(jù)監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今日，國(guó)內(nèi)重點(diǎn)城市Ф25mm三級(jí)螺紋鋼平均價(jià)格3891元(噸價(jià)，下同)，較昨日漲2元；國(guó)內(nèi)重點(diǎn) 城市Ф6.5mm高線平均價(jià)格為4103元，較昨日平穩(wěn)；國(guó)內(nèi)重點(diǎn)城市5.5mm熱軋卷板平均價(jià)格為3795元，較昨日漲7元；國(guó)內(nèi)重點(diǎn)中心城市 1.0mm冷板的平均價(jià)格為4318元，較昨日漲3元；國(guó)內(nèi)重點(diǎn)城市20mm中板平均價(jià)格3910元，較昨日漲1元。
In terms of price, according to monitoring data, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in key cities in China today is 3891 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 2 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 6.5mm high-speed line in key cities in China is 4103 yuan, which is more stable than yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil plate in key cities in China is 3795 yuan, up 7 yuan from yesterday; and the average price of 1.0mm cold plate in key central cities in China. The price is 4318 yuan, up 3 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 20mm plate in key cities in China is 3910 yuan, up 1 yuan from yesterday.

原料方面，今日，唐山地區(qū)昌黎150*150普碳方坯3410元，較昨日漲20元；京唐港61.5%品位澳大利亞PB鐵礦粉價(jià)格為640元，較昨日降10元；唐山地區(qū)準(zhǔn)一級(jí)冶金焦含稅到廠價(jià)格2150元，較昨日持平。
In terms of raw materials, today, Changli 150*150 carbon billet in Tangshan area is 3410 yuan, up 20 yuan from yesterday; Beijing-Tanggang 61.5% grade Australian PB iron ore powder price is 640 yuan, down 10 yuan from yesterday; Tangshan quasi-first grade metallurgical coke with tax arrival price is 2150 yuan, which is flat compared with yesterday.