三月份國內方管市場先穩(wěn)后漲行業(yè)存在的尷尬現(xiàn)狀

送走膠著2月份，迎來傳統(tǒng)“金三”。方管市在眼望今年終端工程啟動明顯早于去年，各地大型項目審批助威，市場對于3月份方管市場同樣抱有期待。
Goodbye glued to February, ushering in the traditional "Jinsan". Fangguan City is looking forward to the start of terminal projects this year significantly earlier than last year. Large-scale projects around the city are approved and supported. The market also looks forward to the Fangguan market in March. 1、各地競相審批、開工大型項目絡繹不絕
1. There is an endless stream of large-scale projects competing for approval and start-up.

自2018年四季度以來，各地區(qū)按照政府“抓早抓緊抓實”要求，堅持把各地項目建設放在重中之重，多措并舉全力加快推薦重點項目建設。其中河南省2月底可集中開工項目達2193個，總投資8650億元貴州正2019年共安排省重點大工程和重點項目2738個，總投資44466元。安徽將新開工1600逾個重點項目。江蘇41個重大交通項目集中開工，今年將完成綜合交通建設投資1370億元。以上僅僅是開幕式，河北、河南、山東、附件、降息、四川等地總投資規(guī)模在達到接近或超2、3萬億。多種跡象表明基建投資正在回暖，為鋼鐵行業(yè)帶來更多曙光。
Since the fourth quarter of 2018, in accordance with the government's requirement of "grasping the key projects as early as possible", all regions have insisted on putting the construction of projects in the top priority, and taken various measures to speed up the construction of recommended key projects. Henan Province can concentrate on 2193 projects at the end of February, with a total investment of 865 billion yuan. In 2019, Guizhou Province is arranging 2738 major projects and key projects, with a total investment of 44466 yuan. Anhui will start more than 1600 key projects. Forty-one major transport projects in Jiangsu have been centralized and started. This year, an investment of 137 billion yuan will be completed in the construction of comprehensive transport. These are just opening ceremonies. The total investment scale in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, accessories, interest rate cuts and Sichuan is approaching or exceeding 2,3 trillion yuan. There are many signs that investment in infrastructure is warming up, bringing more dawn to the steel industry.

2、方管廠受成本硬核支撐
2. Square Pipe Factory Supported by Cost Hard Core

月底，唐山方坯報價3480元，山東管坯報價4000-4050元。按照理論成本來核算，方坯噸價利潤520元上下，管坯在800元左右。對于下游加工企業(yè)來講，按照年前管廠主流平均采購管坯價格在3950元左右，當前臨沂管廠中等熱軋管出廠價格4600元，而現(xiàn)多發(fā)的是年前訂單。按照節(jié)后4000元以上管坯理論核算，管廠利潤在百元左右，利潤微薄，下調空間極其有限，剛開春便虧損，情理之中難以接受，后續(xù)會隨著需求釋放，出貨放量，價格無疑會有所上行。不過在今年新機組仍有陸續(xù)投產及去年投產今年產能正常釋放，供需矛盾高于其他品種，這即是方管行業(yè)存在的尷尬現(xiàn)狀。
At the end of the month, Tangshan billet quoted 3480 yuan, Shandong pipe billet quoted 4000-4050 yuan. According to the theoretical cost, the profit of billet price per ton is 520 yuan, and that of billet is about 800 yuan. For downstream processing enterprises, according to the average purchase price of pipe blanks in the previous year's main stream, the current Linyi Pipe Factory's medium hot-rolled pipe ex-factory price is 4600 yuan, while the current recurrence is the previous year's orders. According to the theoretical calculation of pipe billet above 4000 yuan after the festival, the profit of the pipe factory is about 100 yuan, the profit is small, the downward space is extremely limited, and it is hard to accept the loss just in the beginning of spring. The price will undoubtedly go up with the release of demand and the quantity of delivery. However, new units have been put into operation this year and released normally this year. The contradiction between supply and demand is higher than that of other types. This is the embarrassing situation of square management industry.

3、3月份社會庫存會加速套現(xiàn)
Social Inventory will Accelerate Cash Arrangement in March and March

截至2月28日，全國22個主導地區(qū)方管社會庫存在80.3萬噸，和波谷64.4萬噸，上升15.9萬噸，仍較去年同期下降2.8萬噸。對于囤貨貿易商來講，資金周轉是一大問題，無疑有庫存者會急于拋售套現(xiàn)。臨沂管廠庫存累計14.95萬噸，較節(jié)前庫存上升3.2萬噸，開工率達到88.8%，開工率逐步回升，庫存壓力高于市場。3月前期，無論是鋼廠還是市場均需要資源流通逐漸順暢，最終流至終端需求方。
As of February 28, local social stocks in 22 leading areas in China were 830,000 tons, and 644,000 tons in Bogota, up 159,000 tons, still 28,000 tons lower than the same period last year. For hoarding traders, capital turnover is a major problem, there is no doubt that inventory will be eager to sell cash. The inventory of Linyi Pipeline Plant totals 149,500 tons, which is 32,000 tons higher than that before the festival. The start-up rate reaches 88.8%. The start-up rate gradually rebounds and the inventory pressure is higher than that of the market. In early March, both steel mills and the market need the smooth flow of resources gradually, and eventually flow to the terminal demander.

3月份迎來兩會，宏觀政策會陸續(xù)釋放利好。中美貿易摩擦談判有實質性進展，終端需求釋放早于去年。從鋼鐵本身行業(yè)來看，鋼廠庫存未爆發(fā)高壓，社會庫存上升在意料之中，另外，當前建筑方管等品種價格低于春節(jié)前價格水平，底部價格無疑夯實，市場將繼續(xù)小幅探漲，一旦有利好出現(xiàn)，會出現(xiàn)一波上漲行情。雖然管坯和方坯價格較大，但管坯亦不會落后同漲，管廠有小幅上調預期，但幅度可控，市場趁此出貨消化庫存，高價新資源陸續(xù)抵庫，方管價格有上沖訴求，不過漲幅整體可控。
March ushered in the two sessions, and macro-policies will be released one after another. Substantive progress has been made in Sino-US trade frictions negotiations, with the release of terminal demand earlier than last year. From the perspective of the steel industry itself, the stock of steel mills has not exploded high pressure, and the social stock has risen unexpectedly. In addition, the current price of construction square tubes and other products is lower than the price level before the Spring Festival. The bottom price is no doubt tampered. The market will continue to rise slightly. Once a favorable situation arises, a wave of rising prices will appear. Although the price of billet and billet is relatively high, but the billet will not lag behind and rise at the same time. The pipe factory has a slight increase in expectations, but the range is controllable. The market takes advantage of this to ship and digest inventory. High-priced new resources come to the warehouse one after another. The price of square tube has an appeal, but the increase is controllable as a whole.