預(yù)計上海地區(qū)方管仍將維持漲跌震蕩行情

本周上海市場方管主流報價4寸主流持平。成本方面，周初期螺漲跌不定市場低沉，鋼價存在沖高修復(fù)訴求，沒有明顯下降的產(chǎn)量對近乎零需求，分歧遲疑氛圍漸起；而下半周宏觀各路政策消息不斷發(fā)布，一旦期螺及原料鋼坯稍有提振，成材便緊跟上漲，另直接原料帶鋼瑞豐3月份因北區(qū)高爐煤氣管道對接，一二線協(xié)議量減20%量，同時管廠集中地區(qū)因重污染天氣陸續(xù) 接收停限產(chǎn)通知，再次使行情表現(xiàn)偏強(qiáng)。截至目前，坯料部分出廠價格3430；唐山瑞豐355mm系列帶鋼出廠3600；天津友發(fā)新國標(biāo)產(chǎn)4寸 (3.75mm)方管報3940，較上周價格累計下調(diào)20元。
This week, the mainstream offer for welded pipe in Shanghai market is flat at 4 inches. In terms of cost, in the early part of the week, the snail price rises and falls uncertainly, the market is depressed, the demand for steel price rises and repairs exists, and there is no obvious drop in production demand near zero, and the atmosphere of divergence and hesitation gradually arises. In the second half of the week, macro policy news is constantly released. Once the snail and raw material billet have been slightly boosted, the finished products will keep up with the increase. In March, Ruifeng, the direct raw material strip steel, will be connected with the North blast furnace gas pipeline. The first-and second-line agreement volume is reduced by 20%, and the centralized area of the pipeline plant receives the stop-and-limit notice one after another due to the heavily polluted weather, which makes the market performance stronger again. Up to now, the ex-factory price of billet part is 3430; the ex-factory price of Tangshan Ruifeng 355mm series strip steel is 3600; the ex-factory price of Tianjin Youfa New National Standard 4 inch (3.75mm) welded pipe is 3940, which is 20 yuan lower than last week's total price. 市場方面，周內(nèi)受發(fā)展粵港澳大灣區(qū)、中美、貨幣寬松等宏觀消息刺激，黑色期貨 走高，而現(xiàn)貨鋼價在經(jīng)歷一波沖高回落后，表現(xiàn)缺乏牢固基礎(chǔ)，焊鍍管市場價格整體調(diào)整積極性不高。成交方面，上海地區(qū)貿(mào)易商回歸時間較晚，加上終端采購操作 謹(jǐn)慎，部分跟隨廠家優(yōu)惠政策50元，承壓走量為主；低價位資源的出現(xiàn)使交投較前幾日有小幅放量，整體成交略顯一般，觀望供應(yīng)和需求博弈趨勢的持續(xù)性，將有 效帶動價格趨強(qiáng)。庫存方面，上游管廠庫存本周部分被動累積，而上海地區(qū)市場各廠資源相對飽和，節(jié)前及目前為止基本以正常協(xié)議庫存為主，目前操作上兩相觀 望，在統(tǒng)計貿(mào)易商焊鍍管資源較上周被動增約1.50%。
On the market side, stimulated by macro-news such as the development of Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, Dawan District, China, the United States and monetary easing, black futures rose in the week, while spot steel prices experienced a wave of ups and downs, showing a lack of solid foundation, and the overall adjustment enthusiasm of welded and plated pipe market prices was not high. Traders in Shanghai return late, coupled with prudent terminal procurement operation, some follow the preferential policy of 50 yuan, with the main volume of pressure; the emergence of low-price resources makes the volume of trade slightly larger than the previous few days, the overall turnover slightly general, wait and see the sustainability of supply and demand game trend, will effectively drive the price to become stronger. In terms of inventory, upstream pipeline factory stocks accumulated passively this week, while the resources of each factory in Shanghai market were relatively saturated. Before the festival and so far, normal agreement stocks were the main stocks. At present, the operation is two-sided. In statistics, TRADERS'welding and plating pipe resources increased passively by about 1.50% compared with last week.

綜合來看，停限產(chǎn)政策實施的靈活及持續(xù)將促使鋼廠價格堅挺，貿(mào)易商觀望心態(tài)下，同時后市需求逐漸啟動，均對價格形成一定支撐；不過目前管廠商存月底走量心態(tài)，操作或相對分歧。預(yù)計上海地區(qū)方管仍將維持漲跌震蕩行情。
Generally speaking, the flexible and sustained implementation of the stop-and-limit policy will make steel mill prices firm, TRADERS'wait-and-see mentality, and the gradual start-up of future market demand, all of which will form a certain support for prices; however, at present, the managers have a mentality of moving at the end of the month, operation or relative divergence. It is expected that the fluctuation of welded pipe market will continue in Shanghai.

價格方面：截至2月22日，本地友發(fā)新國標(biāo)產(chǎn)1.5寸 (3.25mm)方管主流報價4130元(噸價，下同)，4寸(3.5mm)方管主流報價4130元，6寸(4mm)方管主流報價4350元。
Price: As of February 22, the mainstream price of 1.5 inch (3.25mm) welded pipe produced by local Youfa New National Standard is 4130 yuan (ton price, the same below), 4 inch (3.5mm) welded pipe is 4130 yuan, 6 inch (4mm) welded pipe is 4350 yuan.