下周國(guó)內(nèi)方管價(jià)格將繼續(xù)堅(jiān)挺運(yùn)行理應(yīng)穩(wěn)中趨漲

本周(3.4-3.8)，國(guó)內(nèi)焊管價(jià)格小幅上調(diào)，截至3月8日，國(guó)內(nèi)十大重點(diǎn)城市4寸焊管均價(jià)為4215元(噸 價(jià)，下同)，比上周同期焊管價(jià)格上漲25元，中心城市其中唐山上調(diào)20元、天津上調(diào)40元、西安漲30元、沈陽(yáng)漲50元、上海漲20元、濟(jì)南漲50元、成 都漲30元，個(gè)別中心城市報(bào)價(jià)暫與上周持平。 原料方面坯方面，三月第一個(gè)交易周(3.4-3.8)鋼坯市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)延續(xù)著溫和運(yùn)行走勢(shì)，價(jià)格始終圍繞在3500元上下浮動(dòng)。從目前形勢(shì)看，需求方面：下 周唐山本地軋鋼廠繼續(xù)全部停產(chǎn)，采購(gòu)鋼坯意愿低，鋼坯需求幾乎為零，需求整體利空；供應(yīng)方面：限產(chǎn)下，高爐影響難以估算，本次多以燒結(jié)焦化限制為主，對(duì)高 爐直接影響有限。期螺方面，按照趨勢(shì)期螺或繼續(xù)呈現(xiàn)震蕩走勢(shì)，多空均無(wú)法接受對(duì)方的控制，但在資金及基本面均沒有明確方向前，鋼坯或呈弱勢(shì)震蕩格局。
This week (3.4-3.8), the domestic welded pipe price increased slightly. As of March 8, the average price of 4-inch welded pipe in ten key cities in China was 4215 yuan (ton price, the same below), which was 25 yuan higher than that in the same period last week. Among the central cities, 20 yuan in Tangshan, 40 yuan in Tianjin, 30 yuan in Xi'an, 50 yuan in Shenyang, 20 yuan in Shanghai, 50 yuan in Jinan and 30 yuan in Chengdu, respectively. It's the same as last week. As for raw material billet, in the first trading week of March (3.4-3.8), the billet market continued to operate mildly, and the price was always floating around 3500 yuan. From the current situation, the demand side: next week Tangshan local rolling mill will continue to shut down all production, low willingness to purchase billets, billet demand is almost zero, the overall demand is bad; supply side: under the production limit, the impact of blast furnace is difficult to estimate, this time mostly focused on sintering coking restrictions, the direct impact on blast furnace is limited. As for snails, according to the trend of snails or continue to show the trend of shocks, the multi-empty can not accept the control of the other side, but before the direction of funds and fundamentals is not clear, the billet or a weak pattern of shocks. 帶鋼方面，截至今日唐山熱軋帶鋼(2.5*355mm)唐山瑞豐3700，較上周同期漲50元。本周市場(chǎng)信心有明顯好轉(zhuǎn)，實(shí)際成交表現(xiàn)較上周良 好，庫(kù)存方面對(duì)比上周有所減少，但是下游對(duì)高位價(jià)格接受度較小，庫(kù)存大的商戶想出貨成交仍是按照價(jià)格可議銷售。目前正值傳統(tǒng)的“金三”，隨著下游陸續(xù)開 工，需求逐漸釋放，對(duì)市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存消耗及心態(tài)方面是一個(gè)利好消息，加之當(dāng)前價(jià)格和庫(kù)存都低于去年，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已大量釋放，北方市場(chǎng)交投氣氛良好，基于成本的支撐，市 場(chǎng)價(jià)格理應(yīng)穩(wěn)中趨漲，商家心態(tài)大體上也漸漸趨于樂觀，對(duì)后市信心增強(qiáng)。綜合看，預(yù)計(jì)下周帶鋼價(jià)格或繼續(xù)趨強(qiáng)。
As for strip steel, Tangshan Ruifeng 3700 hot rolled strip steel (2.5*355mm) has increased by 50 yuan compared with the same period last week. Market confidence improved markedly this week. Actual trading performance was better than last week. Inventory decreased compared with last week. However, downstream acceptance of high prices was relatively low. Businessmen with large inventories still want to sell their goods according to the price. At present, it is the traditional "Golden Three". With the construction of downstream areas and the gradual release of demand, it is good news for the consumption of stock and mentality of the market. In addition, the current price and inventory are lower than last year. The risk has been released in large quantities. The trading atmosphere in the northern market is good. Based on the support of cost, the market price should rise steadily, and the mentality of businessmen is gradually optimistic. Confidence in the future market has increased. Taken together, it is expected that the strip price will continue to strengthen next week.

管廠方面
Pipe factory aspect

本周，迎來(lái)“兩會(huì)”時(shí)間，為保證兩會(huì)期間的空氣質(zhì)量，多地如：天津、邯鄲、武安、滄州等陸續(xù)接到環(huán)保限產(chǎn)通知，其中對(duì)管影響較明顯的是邯鄲地區(qū)對(duì) 當(dāng)?shù)刂髁鞴軓S的限產(chǎn)政策，接邯鄲環(huán)保局口頭通知：邯鄲當(dāng)?shù)毓軓S生產(chǎn)線全停，此次停限產(chǎn)政策執(zhí)行一個(gè)月，邯鄲地區(qū)三家主導(dǎo)管廠焊鍍管產(chǎn)線69條，預(yù)計(jì)單日影 響產(chǎn)量2萬(wàn)噸左右，另外原料也有進(jìn)一步趨緊預(yù)期。隨著兩會(huì)的召開，公布的各項(xiàng)政策雖顯平淡，但利好因素仍占多數(shù)。本周，焊鍍管市場(chǎng)由于成交轉(zhuǎn)好、廠內(nèi)規(guī)格 緊缺等原因價(jià)格保持堅(jiān)挺運(yùn)行。截至3月7日，天津唐山邯鄲主要管廠統(tǒng)計(jì)：本周廠內(nèi)原料帶鋼庫(kù)存40.75萬(wàn)噸，比上周降2.35萬(wàn)噸；焊管庫(kù)存9.55萬(wàn) 噸，比上周增1萬(wàn)噸；鍍鋅管庫(kù)存19.4萬(wàn)噸，比上周降1.2萬(wàn)噸；日均成交量4.93萬(wàn)噸，比上周增0.19萬(wàn)噸。從蘭格網(wǎng)的調(diào)查來(lái)看，本周成交量出現(xiàn) 明顯好轉(zhuǎn)，據(jù)知情人士透露，本周某管廠成交量創(chuàng)近三年來(lái)單周最高水平。
This week, in order to ensure air quality during the two sessions, many places, such as Tianjin, Handan, Wuan and Cangzhou, have been notified of environmental production restriction. The obvious impact on management is the policy of production restriction of local mainstream pipe plants in Handan. Following the oral announcement by Handan Environmental Protection Bureau, the production line of local pipe plants in Handan has stopped completely and the policy of production restriction has been implemented for one month. There are 69 production lines of welded and plated pipes in three leading pipe factories in Handan area. It is estimated that the output will be affected by about 20,000 tons per day. In addition, the raw materials are expected to be tightened further. With the convening of the two sessions, although the policies announced are rather dull, the favorable factors still account for the majority. This week, the market for welded and plated pipes has maintained a firm operation due to good turnover and shortage of specifications in the factory. As of March 7, Tianjin Tangshan Handan main pipe factory statistics: this week's stock of raw material strip steel 407,500 tons, down 23,500 tons from last week; welded pipe inventory 95,500 tons, up 10,000 tons from last week; galvanized pipe inventory 194,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from last week; daily average turnover 49,300 tons, up 0.19 million tons from last week. According to Langer's survey, this week's turnover showed a marked improvement. According to people familiar with the situation, this week's turnover of a pipe factory reached its highest level in nearly three years.

監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至3月8日，唐山友發(fā)產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國(guó)標(biāo)焊管現(xiàn)金出廠價(jià)格為3910元，比上周同期上調(diào)10元；唐山京華 產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國(guó)標(biāo)焊管現(xiàn)金出廠價(jià)格為3960元，比上周同期上調(diào)20元；吉立(正大)產(chǎn)4寸(3.75)新國(guó)標(biāo)焊管現(xiàn)金出廠價(jià)格為3980元，暫 與上周同期持平。
Monitoring data show that as of March 8, Tangshan Youfa's cash ex-factory price of 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipe was 3910 yuan, up 10 yuan from the same period last week; Tangshan Jinghua's cash ex-factory price of 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipe was 3960 yuan, up 20 yuan from the same period last week; Jili's cash ex-factory price of 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipe was 3980 yuan, temporarily equal to the same period last week.

市場(chǎng)方面
Market aspect

本周，下游需求陸續(xù)啟動(dòng)，但“兩會(huì)”期間華北及周邊市場(chǎng)受環(huán)保影響開工情況依然不理想，其他地區(qū)如中南、西南及東南地區(qū)市場(chǎng)成交出現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn)，但目前 南方雨水天氣持續(xù)不斷仍對(duì)終端需求有所抑制，管材南下走貨緩慢，另外東北以及西北市場(chǎng)開始緩慢啟動(dòng)，而大部分貿(mào)易商表示漲價(jià)較困難，高價(jià)位成交明顯受阻。
This week, downstream demand started one after another, but during the "two sessions" period, the market in North China and its surrounding areas was still unsatisfactory due to environmental protection. Market transactions in other areas such as central-south, southwest and Southeast Areas improved. However, the rainy weather in the South continued to restrain terminal demand, pipe materials went southward slowly, and the northeast and Northwest markets began to start slowly. Most traders said it was difficult to raise prices, and high prices were obviously hindered.

總的來(lái)看，本周“兩會(huì)”政策的平淡、期螺的下行和現(xiàn)貨成品材價(jià)格的弱勢(shì)調(diào)整態(tài)勢(shì)讓市場(chǎng)信心稍受打擊，情緒面也出現(xiàn)了些許變化，但在需求沒有被偽證 的情況下，筆者認(rèn)為短期調(diào)整的空間不大，但仍需等待市場(chǎng)情緒得到充分宣泄。而受環(huán)保限產(chǎn)影響，目前焊鍍管原料資源趨緊，廠內(nèi)個(gè)別規(guī)格緊缺，因此下周國(guó)內(nèi)方管價(jià)格將繼續(xù)堅(jiān)挺運(yùn)行。
Generally speaking, this week's "two sessions" policy, the downward trend of snails and the weak adjustment of spot product prices have hit market confidence slightly, and some changes have taken place in the emotional side. However, in the absence of perjury in demand, the author believes that there is little room for short-term adjustment, but we still need to wait for market sentiment to be fully vented. Influenced by environmental protection and production restriction, the raw material resources of welded and plated pipes are tightening, and the specifications of individual plants are scarce. Therefore, the price of domestic domestic domestic pipes will continue to run steadily next week.